Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
$¢=1ter.$.\-Pvlis*d._$@rvisea»..1970-.-
Milton”
Rubles
4,044.4 B
307.4 b
375.01’
Total services
Less sales to enterprises
Less 95 percent of the housing services sold to
?I‘}.FLPEi?_°§
Plus 96 percent of the materials used in
tailoring of clothing
1,003.1 °
Plus 96 percent of the materials used in 115.4 C
tailori_ng of knitwear
Equals consumer purchases of services
8 Narkhoz 1972, p. 621.
b Estimated on the basis of percentage data given for the RSFSR in
V. 1. Dmitriev, Metodologieheskiye osnovy prognozirovaniya sprosa
na bylovyye uslugi, 1975, p. 98 and ruble values in Narkhoz RSFSR
1972, pp. 401-402.
C Materials are assumed to constitute halfof total sales approximate-
ly the ratio for earlier years shown by data in Narkhoz I968, p. 664
and Narkhoz 1969, p. 660. Enterprise sales are calculated at 4
percent of enterprise purchases of tailoring services, the share that
can be derived from Dmitriev’s data.
4,480.7
share during 1966-72, using data on total sales given in
Narkhoz I972, p. 621 and similar tables in Narhozy
for subsequent years. The share was assumed to
remain unchanged after 1976. The share estimated for
that year (16.9 percent) accords well with a Soviet
statement that the share was almost 18 percent in
1975.” Because of a change in the way data were
reported, use of this procedure for years after 1976
necessitated adding materials used in repair of dura-
bles and of housing to the published totals; these were
estimated to be half of the totals, their shares in 1975-
76.
2. These values in current and constant prices are used I
to splice together an index in constant prices for 1966-
80. ,
3. The index for 1960-65 is based on constant price l
values given in L.A. Bobrov, N.V. Gukov, and K.S.
Gulevich, E konomika bytovogo obsluzhivaniya nase—
Ieniya, 1971, p. 27.
4. Data in current prices for the RSFSR, cited in Ibid.,
p. 24 for 1958-62 were used to obtain an index for
1958-60. For 1956-58 the annual growth rate is based
on constant price data for the RSFSR, given in L.A.
Bobrov, E konomicheskiye problemy bytovogo 0bsluz—
hivaniya naseleniya, 1978, p. 58. An annual growth of
10 percent was assumed for 1950-55, the rate reported
for 1950-54 in Bobrov, et al, 1971, p. 23.
"’ N.V. Gukov, Ekonomika, organizatsiya i planirovaniye mater- _
ial ‘no-tekhnicheskogo snabzheniya predpriyatiy bytovogo 0bsluzh1-
vaniya, Moscow, 1977, p. 14.
Privately-supplied services. The growth rates of these
services during 1959-1970 are based on data for the
RSFSR given in V.I. Dmitriev, op. cit., p. 45. For
1950-58, the 1959 value was assumed. The level in
1970 was assumed the same in all following years, on
the reasoning that the fast growing supplies of state
services would tend to crowd out private services, given
the generally hostile official attitude toward them,
even though money incomes continued to rise rapidly.
There are no other data on the trend in the supply of
these services.
'
I
Recreation. Scope and Coverage. As defined here, the
sector encompasses activities providing entertainment
and recreation services to the population that are
largely paid for out of household incomes. Conceptu-
ally, the sector includes both public and private
purveyors of entertainment and recreational services,
such as movies, theater, ballet, concerts, circuses,
sports, vacation resorts, and lodging facilities. There is
no direct counterpart of this sector in the Soviet
classification of economic activities; rather, the sector
encompasses “art”, a component of the category
“culture and art,” “sanitoria and resorts” and “sports
and physical culture organizations,” both components
of “health and physical culture”; and “hotels,” a
component of “housing-communal economy and ev-
eryday services.” (See Metodicheskiye ukazaniya,
1974, pp. 762, 764, 767.) The categories in US
national accounts that would be encompassed in
“Recreation” are: motion pictures, amusements and
recreational services n.e.c., and hotels and other lodg-
ing places.
The index used to measure the activity of the sector is
a weighted aggregate of three sub-indexes: “entertain-
ment,” “resorts” and “leisure.” The first reflects the
activities of movies, theaters, sports, and other enter-
tainment enterprises. The second represents the ac-
tivities of vacation resorts, which are publicly operat-
ed and heavily subsidized in the USSR. The third is
intended to represent recreation in the form of travel,
not yet common in the USSR. Available data do not
permit satisfactory measurement of these diverse ac-
tivities. Neither expenditure data nor price deflators
are available for developing the deflated expenditure
series that are employed to measure comparable
activities in US national accounts. As a substitute,
several physical series were selected to represent the
various types of activities and aggregated with 1970
348 '
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.