Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Cooper”25 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 $¢=1ter.$.\-Pvlis*d._$@rvisea»..1970-.- Milton” Rubles 4,044.4 B 307.4 b 375.01’ Total services Less sales to enterprises Less 95 percent of the housing services sold to ?I‘}.FLPEi?_°§ Plus 96 percent of the materials used in tailoring of clothing 1,003.1 ° Plus 96 percent of the materials used in 115.4 C tailori_ng of knitwear Equals consumer purchases of services 8 Narkhoz 1972, p. 621. b Estimated on the basis of percentage data given for the RSFSR in V. 1. Dmitriev, Metodologieheskiye osnovy prognozirovaniya sprosa na bylovyye uslugi, 1975, p. 98 and ruble values in Narkhoz RSFSR 1972, pp. 401-402. C Materials are assumed to constitute halfof total sales approximate- ly the ratio for earlier years shown by data in Narkhoz I968, p. 664 and Narkhoz 1969, p. 660. Enterprise sales are calculated at 4 percent of enterprise purchases of tailoring services, the share that can be derived from Dmitriev’s data. 4,480.7 share during 1966-72, using data on total sales given in Narkhoz I972, p. 621 and similar tables in Narhozy for subsequent years. The share was assumed to remain unchanged after 1976. The share estimated for that year (16.9 percent) accords well with a Soviet statement that the share was almost 18 percent in 1975.” Because of a change in the way data were reported, use of this procedure for years after 1976 necessitated adding materials used in repair of dura- bles and of housing to the published totals; these were estimated to be half of the totals, their shares in 1975- 76. 2. These values in current and constant prices are used I to splice together an index in constant prices for 1966- 80. , 3. The index for 1960-65 is based on constant price l values given in L.A. Bobrov, N.V. Gukov, and K.S. Gulevich, E konomika bytovogo obsluzhivaniya nase— Ieniya, 1971, p. 27. 4. Data in current prices for the RSFSR, cited in Ibid., p. 24 for 1958-62 were used to obtain an index for 1958-60. For 1956-58 the annual growth rate is based on constant price data for the RSFSR, given in L.A. Bobrov, E konomicheskiye problemy bytovogo 0bsluz— hivaniya naseleniya, 1978, p. 58. An annual growth of 10 percent was assumed for 1950-55, the rate reported for 1950-54 in Bobrov, et al, 1971, p. 23. "’ N.V. Gukov, Ekonomika, organizatsiya i planirovaniye mater- _ ial ‘no-tekhnicheskogo snabzheniya predpriyatiy bytovogo 0bsluzh1- vaniya, Moscow, 1977, p. 14. Privately-supplied services. The growth rates of these services during 1959-1970 are based on data for the RSFSR given in V.I. Dmitriev, op. cit., p. 45. For 1950-58, the 1959 value was assumed. The level in 1970 was assumed the same in all following years, on the reasoning that the fast growing supplies of state services would tend to crowd out private services, given the generally hostile official attitude toward them, even though money incomes continued to rise rapidly. There are no other data on the trend in the supply of these services. ' I Recreation. Scope and Coverage. As defined here, the sector encompasses activities providing entertainment and recreation services to the population that are largely paid for out of household incomes. Conceptu- ally, the sector includes both public and private purveyors of entertainment and recreational services, such as movies, theater, ballet, concerts, circuses, sports, vacation resorts, and lodging facilities. There is no direct counterpart of this sector in the Soviet classification of economic activities; rather, the sector encompasses “art”, a component of the category “culture and art,” “sanitoria and resorts” and “sports and physical culture organizations,” both components of “health and physical culture”; and “hotels,” a component of “housing-communal economy and ev- eryday services.” (See Metodicheskiye ukazaniya, 1974, pp. 762, 764, 767.) The categories in US national accounts that would be encompassed in “Recreation” are: motion pictures, amusements and recreational services n.e.c., and hotels and other lodg- ing places. The index used to measure the activity of the sector is a weighted aggregate of three sub-indexes: “entertain- ment,” “resorts” and “leisure.” The first reflects the activities of movies, theaters, sports, and other enter- tainment enterprises. The second represents the ac- tivities of vacation resorts, which are publicly operat- ed and heavily subsidized in the USSR. The third is intended to represent recreation in the form of travel, not yet common in the USSR. Available data do not permit satisfactory measurement of these diverse ac- tivities. Neither expenditure data nor price deflators are available for developing the deflated expenditure series that are employed to measure comparable activities in US national accounts. As a substitute, several physical series were selected to represent the various types of activities and aggregated with 1970 348 ' Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.