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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 18 …Power, United Nations International Comparisons Project, Phase I (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975) ICP…
  • p. 19 …Oleg 1-Ioeffding, Soviet National Income and Product in 1928, Columbia University Press, New York, 1954…
  • p. 21 …In theory, the Soviets " Basic Principles of the System of Balances of the National Economy, United…
  • p. 50 …Lawrence Grose, Real Output Measurement in the United States National Income and Product Accounts, US Department…
  • p. 166 …The subsidies on housing, recreation, and the press were allocated to the housing, recreation, and other…
  • p. 181 …Duke University Press, 1972), pp. 155-194; with Wade Robertson, “Industrial Production in the USSR," Soviet…
  • p. 183 …tons, square meters, units of production, or some other convention- al measure. Examples of this type…
  • p. 210 …For example, the production of commodities pub- lished in physical units includes intraplant turnover, but the…
  • p. 222 …bulbs Units Narkhoz Machine tools sector ml Meta? cutting machine tools Rubles Narkhoz Forge presses sector…
  • p. 249 …Hardt, eds., Soviet Economic Statistics, Durham, N.C., Duke University Press, 1972 Treml and Hardt U…
  • p. 261 …Khrushchev stat- ed that “figures for average yield (of grain) which you read in the press…
  • p. 308 …central press. 8 Because the official data have again been made available to the United States…
  • p. 320 …Power, United Nations International Comparisons Project, Phase I (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975) ICP…
  • p. 321 …2 For details, see United Nations, Comparisons ofthe System of National Accounts and the System of…
  • p. 328 …Judging from a mass of anecdotal evidence from the Soviet press concerning the poor quality of…
  • p. 342 …Although the average size of a dwelling unit increased between 1950 and 1978-by 17 percent…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
sewage disposal because separate physical indicators
are not available and because the bulk of such services
are provided to state-owned housing. Although the
share of housing units provided with such amenities
evidently has been rising, the data are insufficient to
allow for this factor.
Weights. The expenditure weights for the three sub-
indexes— electricity, gas, and other utilities—repre-
sent their respective shares in total household outlays
in 1970 and were derived from a table given in
Ekonomicheskie nauki, no. 11, 1973, p. 44. The
percentage shares are, respectively, 45.1, 9.1 and 45.8.
The share allocated to “other utilities” is the sum of
the source’s categories “water pipes and sewer sys-
tems,” “heating” and “hot water supply." The latter
two, with over four-fifths of the category weight, are
supplied as joint products.
Index. The index for utilities is a weighted composite
of three separate indexes—electricity, gas, and other
utilities (heat, water, sewage disposal).
Electricity. The index reflects the consumption of
electricity by all households, rural and urban, mea-
sured in kilowatt-hours. Consistent data are available
for only 3 years—l960, 1970 and 1975. Consumption
in 1960 is estimated at 17.358 billion kilowatt-hours
on the basis of the statement that household use of
electricity amounted to 81 kilowatt-hours per person
(Energetika SSSR v 1971-75 godakh, Moscow, 1972,
p. 61) and a mid-year population of 214.3 million.
Consumption in 1970 is given at 41.2 billion kilowatt-
hours (lbid., p. 63). Consumption in 1975 is given as
56.6 billion kilowatt-hours (Energetika SSSR v I967-
I980 godakh, Moscow, 1977, p. 47). Total household
consumption is estimated at 9.251 billion kilowatt-
hours in 1950 based on some information with respect
to urban use and rural use. Urban household con-
sumption in 1950 is reported at 9.412 billion kilowatt-
hours (P. S. Neporozhniy (ed.), Elektrifikatsiya
SSSR, Moscow, 1970, p. 522). This figure evidently
includes electricity used for street lighting, which was
estimated at 481 million kilowatt-hours on the basis of
the share of street lighting in 1958 (1. T. Novikov,
Energetika SSSR, Moscow, 1961, p. 377) and the
assumption that the share was the same in 1950.
Total use of electricity by rural households in 1950
was estimated at 320 million kilowatt-hours on the
basis of some information for 1953. Total consump-
tion for all uses by agriculture is reported at 1.538
billion kilowatt-hours in 1950 (Sel'kh0z I97], p. 402).
Consumption for nonproductive uses for 1953 can be
estimated at 27.7 percent of total consumption in
1953 from data in Sel'kh0z I960, pp. 428, 432, 436.
This share was assumed to apply to 1950. and the
further assumption was made that household use
accounts for 75 percent of the total. The Soviets
report that 10 percent of collective farm households
(2.050 million) had electricity in 1950 (SeI'kh0z I971,
p. 402). Comparable figures are not available for state
farms, but the share probably was higher; they em-
ployed 2.425 million workers in 1950. Since commu-
nal facilities were scarce in rural areas, household use
probably constituted most of the non-productive use
of electricity.
Estimates for all other years were derived by interpo-
lation on the basis of average annual rates of growth.
Household consumption in 1976 and thereafter was
estimated on the assumption that its share of total
production of electricity, regularly reported in Nark-
hoz, was the same as in 1975 (5.45 percent).
Gas. The index measures gas consumed by households
in billion cubic meters. Data on actual consumption
are available for 1966-76 (Ekonomika gazovoy pro-
myshlennosti, No. 2, 1978, p. 7) and for 1960 (Gaso-
vaya pr0m_vshIenn0st', No. 4, 1970, p. 55). Consump-
tion in all other years was estimated on the
assumption that the household share ws 3.75 percent
of total production of natural gas in each year. ln
1960, the share was 3.97 percent (1bid.). During 1967-
76, its share fluctuated between 3.49 percent and 4.15
percent; its share was 3.89 percent in 1976. Data on
production of natural gas are given as follows: 1950-
62~—Pr0m, 1964, p. 213; 1963—Narkh0: I969, p.
198; 1970-76—Narkh0z za 60 let, p. 205 and in
similar tables in Narkhozy for subsequent years.
Other Utilities. The measure for this category is an
index of the midyear urban public housing stock
expressed in m’. Mid-year stocks were calculated
from data on end-of-year stocks given as follows:
1950—Narkh0z 1922-I972, p. 367; 1952, 1958-62--
Narkhoz I962, p. 499; 1963-64~Narkh0: I964, p.
610; 1965-68~Narkh0z I968, p. 580; 1969—-Nark-
hoz I969, p. 568; 1970-75—Narkh0z 1975, p. 576;
1976 and following years—similar tables in the re-
spective annual Narkhozy. Stocks in 1951 and 1953-
57 were interpolated.
345
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.