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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
sewage disposal because separate physical indicators
are not available and because the bulk of such services
are provided to state-owned housing. Although the
share of housing units provided with such amenities
evidently has been rising, the data are insufficient to
allow for this factor.
Weights. The expenditure weights for the three sub-
indexes— electricity, gas, and other utilities—repre-
sent their respective shares in total household outlays
in 1970 and were derived from a table given in
Ekonomicheskie nauki, no. 11, 1973, p. 44. The
percentage shares are, respectively, 45.1, 9.1 and 45.8.
The share allocated to “other utilities” is the sum of
the source’s categories “water pipes and sewer sys-
tems,” “heating” and “hot water supply." The latter
two, with over four-fifths of the category weight, are
supplied as joint products.
Index. The index for utilities is a weighted composite
of three separate indexes—electricity, gas, and other
utilities (heat, water, sewage disposal).
Electricity. The index reflects the consumption of
electricity by all households, rural and urban, mea-
sured in kilowatt-hours. Consistent data are available
for only 3 years—l960, 1970 and 1975. Consumption
in 1960 is estimated at 17.358 billion kilowatt-hours
on the basis of the statement that household use of
electricity amounted to 81 kilowatt-hours per person
(Energetika SSSR v 1971-75 godakh, Moscow, 1972,
p. 61) and a mid-year population of 214.3 million.
Consumption in 1970 is given at 41.2 billion kilowatt-
hours (lbid., p. 63). Consumption in 1975 is given as
56.6 billion kilowatt-hours (Energetika SSSR v I967-
I980 godakh, Moscow, 1977, p. 47). Total household
consumption is estimated at 9.251 billion kilowatt-
hours in 1950 based on some information with respect
to urban use and rural use. Urban household con-
sumption in 1950 is reported at 9.412 billion kilowatt-
hours (P. S. Neporozhniy (ed.), Elektrifikatsiya
SSSR, Moscow, 1970, p. 522). This figure evidently
includes electricity used for street lighting, which was
estimated at 481 million kilowatt-hours on the basis of
the share of street lighting in 1958 (1. T. Novikov,
Energetika SSSR, Moscow, 1961, p. 377) and the
assumption that the share was the same in 1950.
Total use of electricity by rural households in 1950
was estimated at 320 million kilowatt-hours on the
basis of some information for 1953. Total consump-
tion for all uses by agriculture is reported at 1.538
billion kilowatt-hours in 1950 (Sel'kh0z I97], p. 402).
Consumption for nonproductive uses for 1953 can be
estimated at 27.7 percent of total consumption in
1953 from data in Sel'kh0z I960, pp. 428, 432, 436.
This share was assumed to apply to 1950. and the
further assumption was made that household use
accounts for 75 percent of the total. The Soviets
report that 10 percent of collective farm households
(2.050 million) had electricity in 1950 (SeI'kh0z I971,
p. 402). Comparable figures are not available for state
farms, but the share probably was higher; they em-
ployed 2.425 million workers in 1950. Since commu-
nal facilities were scarce in rural areas, household use
probably constituted most of the non-productive use
of electricity.
Estimates for all other years were derived by interpo-
lation on the basis of average annual rates of growth.
Household consumption in 1976 and thereafter was
estimated on the assumption that its share of total
production of electricity, regularly reported in Nark-
hoz, was the same as in 1975 (5.45 percent).
Gas. The index measures gas consumed by households
in billion cubic meters. Data on actual consumption
are available for 1966-76 (Ekonomika gazovoy pro-
myshlennosti, No. 2, 1978, p. 7) and for 1960 (Gaso-
vaya pr0m_vshIenn0st', No. 4, 1970, p. 55). Consump-
tion in all other years was estimated on the
assumption that the household share ws 3.75 percent
of total production of natural gas in each year. ln
1960, the share was 3.97 percent (1bid.). During 1967-
76, its share fluctuated between 3.49 percent and 4.15
percent; its share was 3.89 percent in 1976. Data on
production of natural gas are given as follows: 1950-
62~—Pr0m, 1964, p. 213; 1963—Narkh0: I969, p.
198; 1970-76—Narkh0z za 60 let, p. 205 and in
similar tables in Narkhozy for subsequent years.
Other Utilities. The measure for this category is an
index of the midyear urban public housing stock
expressed in m’. Mid-year stocks were calculated
from data on end-of-year stocks given as follows:
1950—Narkh0z 1922-I972, p. 367; 1952, 1958-62--
Narkhoz I962, p. 499; 1963-64~Narkh0: I964, p.
610; 1965-68~Narkh0z I968, p. 580; 1969—-Nark-
hoz I969, p. 568; 1970-75—Narkh0z 1975, p. 576;
1976 and following years—similar tables in the re-
spective annual Narkhozy. Stocks in 1951 and 1953-
57 were interpolated.
345
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.