Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Cooper”25 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 sewage disposal because separate physical indicators are not available and because the bulk of such services are provided to state-owned housing. Although the share of housing units provided with such amenities evidently has been rising, the data are insufficient to allow for this factor. Weights. The expenditure weights for the three sub- indexes— electricity, gas, and other utilities—repre- sent their respective shares in total household outlays in 1970 and were derived from a table given in Ekonomicheskie nauki, no. 11, 1973, p. 44. The percentage shares are, respectively, 45.1, 9.1 and 45.8. The share allocated to “other utilities” is the sum of the source’s categories “water pipes and sewer sys- tems,” “heating” and “hot water supply." The latter two, with over four-fifths of the category weight, are supplied as joint products. Index. The index for utilities is a weighted composite of three separate indexes—electricity, gas, and other utilities (heat, water, sewage disposal). Electricity. The index reflects the consumption of electricity by all households, rural and urban, mea- sured in kilowatt-hours. Consistent data are available for only 3 years—l960, 1970 and 1975. Consumption in 1960 is estimated at 17.358 billion kilowatt-hours on the basis of the statement that household use of electricity amounted to 81 kilowatt-hours per person (Energetika SSSR v 1971-75 godakh, Moscow, 1972, p. 61) and a mid-year population of 214.3 million. Consumption in 1970 is given at 41.2 billion kilowatt- hours (lbid., p. 63). Consumption in 1975 is given as 56.6 billion kilowatt-hours (Energetika SSSR v I967- I980 godakh, Moscow, 1977, p. 47). Total household consumption is estimated at 9.251 billion kilowatt- hours in 1950 based on some information with respect to urban use and rural use. Urban household con- sumption in 1950 is reported at 9.412 billion kilowatt- hours (P. S. Neporozhniy (ed.), Elektrifikatsiya SSSR, Moscow, 1970, p. 522). This figure evidently includes electricity used for street lighting, which was estimated at 481 million kilowatt-hours on the basis of the share of street lighting in 1958 (1. T. Novikov, Energetika SSSR, Moscow, 1961, p. 377) and the assumption that the share was the same in 1950. Total use of electricity by rural households in 1950 was estimated at 320 million kilowatt-hours on the basis of some information for 1953. Total consump- tion for all uses by agriculture is reported at 1.538 billion kilowatt-hours in 1950 (Sel'kh0z I97], p. 402). Consumption for nonproductive uses for 1953 can be estimated at 27.7 percent of total consumption in 1953 from data in Sel'kh0z I960, pp. 428, 432, 436. This share was assumed to apply to 1950. and the further assumption was made that household use accounts for 75 percent of the total. The Soviets report that 10 percent of collective farm households (2.050 million) had electricity in 1950 (SeI'kh0z I971, p. 402). Comparable figures are not available for state farms, but the share probably was higher; they em- ployed 2.425 million workers in 1950. Since commu- nal facilities were scarce in rural areas, household use probably constituted most of the non-productive use of electricity. Estimates for all other years were derived by interpo- lation on the basis of average annual rates of growth. Household consumption in 1976 and thereafter was estimated on the assumption that its share of total production of electricity, regularly reported in Nark- hoz, was the same as in 1975 (5.45 percent). Gas. The index measures gas consumed by households in billion cubic meters. Data on actual consumption are available for 1966-76 (Ekonomika gazovoy pro- myshlennosti, No. 2, 1978, p. 7) and for 1960 (Gaso- vaya pr0m_vshIenn0st', No. 4, 1970, p. 55). Consump- tion in all other years was estimated on the assumption that the household share ws 3.75 percent of total production of natural gas in each year. ln 1960, the share was 3.97 percent (1bid.). During 1967- 76, its share fluctuated between 3.49 percent and 4.15 percent; its share was 3.89 percent in 1976. Data on production of natural gas are given as follows: 1950- 62~—Pr0m, 1964, p. 213; 1963—Narkh0: I969, p. 198; 1970-76—Narkh0z za 60 let, p. 205 and in similar tables in Narkhozy for subsequent years. Other Utilities. The measure for this category is an index of the midyear urban public housing stock expressed in m’. Mid-year stocks were calculated from data on end-of-year stocks given as follows: 1950—Narkh0z 1922-I972, p. 367; 1952, 1958-62-- Narkhoz I962, p. 499; 1963-64~Narkh0: I964, p. 610; 1965-68~Narkh0z I968, p. 580; 1969—-Nark- hoz I969, p. 568; 1970-75—Narkh0z 1975, p. 576; 1976 and following years—similar tables in the re- spective annual Narkhozy. Stocks in 1951 and 1953- 57 were interpolated. 345 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.