Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Cooper”25 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 and implicitly, all of the items included in the tovary series except household chemicals. A comparison of the three indexes is shown below (1950 = 100): Index of C0nsump- CIA Index of Index of tion of Durables Production of Tovary and Miscellaneous Consumer Goods Durables and Furniture " 19,6°___,__ ‘}j4_9_,_,_ ,__ _ _f’@L_-, _____4§___... 197° W _ ‘9_Y2,_.___._ , ____ 1,25 §___ ,____ 1_~2_@.__ _ _..__ 1975 1,660 l,773 2,018 *' Weighted by estimated retail sales of durables (78.4 percent) and of furniture (2l.6 percent) Although the index of consumption grew more slowly than the production-based indexes, the rates ofgrowth shown by the three indexes are not greatly different. A number of factors may account for the differences: (l) differences in coverage, (2) probable price inflation in the tovary series, (3) the fact that the CIA production index reflects the tovary series in part, (4) the production-based series include exports and some non- consumption usage, while the consumption index reflects imports, (5) the production-based series allow for inventory accumulations. Weights. The 1970 weight represents the value of relevant categories of goods identified in Soviet retail sales data plus a share of the residual of unidentified sales, less repair and other applicable services, commis- sion sales, and purchases by state enterprises and organizations. The details are described in Appendix D of JEC, GNP, 1950-80. The category weight is judged to be quite reliable. Index. The index for durables and miscellaneous goods is derived from three sets of regularly published data: (l)value of retail sales by major product category in current prices, found, for example, in Narkhoz 1975, pp. 626-627; (2) indexes of prices in state and cooperat- ive retail trade by major product group (found, for example in Narkhoz 1975, pp. 645), and (3) for a few categories, indexes of the growth of retail sales in constant prices (found, for example, in Narkhoz I975, p. 590). From these data it is possible to obtain a series of ruble values of total retail sales of non-food goods in constant I970 rubles and likewise a series of similar values for tobacco and for 17 categories of soft goods that are included in our indexes for food beverages, and tobacco and for soft goods. The sum of these 18 values for each year was then subtracted from the total value of non-food goods in that year to obtain the residual value in constant 1970 rubles. The residual consists almost entirely of durables and miscellaneous related goods. The procedure, in effect, derives the price deflator for this group of goods that is implicit in the values and indexes in current and constant values published by the Soviet government. This outcome is made possible by the fact that the official indexes of rc- tail prices are linked indexes employing given year weights (S. G. Stolyarov, O tsenakh i tsenoobrazovanii vSSSR, Moscow, I969, p. I03). The values underlying the index of durables and miscellaneous goods are shown in Appendix D. Services The index of services is a weighted average ofan index of household services and an index of communal services. The weights are those for 1970 used in GNP by end use. Household Services The index for household services is a weighted aggre- gate of six sub-indexes for major types of services» housing, utilities, transportation, communications, re- pair and personal care, and recreation. The indexes as a group cover all of the major household services; any services omitted would be insignificant in terms of consumer expenditures. The Soviet Union lacks most of the financial and related services that are impor- tant in Western countries. Although some, such as legal services, do exist, there are no data concerning them. The 1970 expenditure weights used to aggre- gate the 6 sub-indexes are those used in GNP by end use; they are described in detail in CIA, GNP I97!) and in JEC, GNP, 1950-80, Appendix D. The data underlying each of the sub-indexes are given in Appendix E. Housing. Scope and Coverage. The index measures the flow of housing services in real terms by the change in the total stock of living space available expressed in square meters. The stock includes all housing, public and private,.urban and rural. About 80 percent of rural housing and 25 percent of all urban housing is privately owned. State housing con- sists mainly of multi-family buildings, where small apartments are rented at heavily subsidized rates. The basic rates have not been changed since they were set in the 1920s. In the US‘ national accounts, housing services as a component of personal consumption are measured by expenditures in current prices, deflated by an index for rents that is a component of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index. Value data are not available for the Soviet Union. 343 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.