Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 6 Comparison of Official and CIA Measures of Soviet Per Capita Consumption Indexes Average Annual (l950= I00) Rates of Growth _ (Percent) 195° I955 I958 I960 19651 I965 '96,? I967 noes I269 I970 I9:/fl I972 1973 Soviet Index of Real Incomes P____z.-_Z____l@-____...,____._C_,. ,_.___,,, ...__ -. _ ...-__ l9..5_l'.5_5_... T3 4-5 _ _. -__l7.3_..._____-C__-.____-.._._@.___*._C_my-,.g25§ié_9, ,,_;._._ . ._.__._J.37__ . . ._ L51 29 , T7 3.6 4.0 _ 2.4-._ W- 12992. I . _ _l°?.____- ___.__..___J§§.___ ._____._______C__-g2@9_,_ . .,_,5~9 , . 223 _ "MC ._ _._____17'___ _ _____ ,l°7_l'75____.____ ,4-4 5:‘ 2.9 if W236 ’Wi2V52 I 189 ,_____.. .____._ .,___._“J1?z_,_,,_____._.___ __, ._1.?_7.6-39, §l._____.-__ . W- 2.19 C... __._ __._.__...-_l?9lfZ9. ,, 4-7 3.4 2.2 268 g_”____ A___2p9Z_____Z __m_________ig§);(>gg____g 4.2W I 73.8 297 W *7 ih W219’ , ___.__..__._._ ___,__'97_1;§°. __.3-9 2-5 _ i f Ni SIQ 226 - ii 712127 _:W_.,m:i iQ*..~.l?.?§-‘£59. ,’:7,,,7Smfl§1QV i WW 323 3.5 ,__ ._._,§?_ W ., 23?. ___ I974 ,.__. _.l52 W _ ___ __ ____ 2-iii ____., _, ____. __._____,,_. _ !975 , ,..__,3,.°§_______,__,_g_;_ ____,252__ _ I976. . . .§§‘L,__.. 357 _._ I977 f W. _____._ __-, _-__ Zéi t 5978” m___30sg__ ‘_ "Mg 269 I979’ WW W D __ m_276*_* iééo 435 ' 282 8 The index was put together from indexes for various periods given in Narkhoz I965, p. 593; Narkhoz I967, p. 674; Narkhoz I970, p. 537; Narkhoz I975, p. 567; and Narkhoz I980, p. 380. I’ Table A-2. Growth rates were calculated from unrounded data. is deflated variously by a cost of living index given in a Soviet source, the official index of state retail prices, and an index of the change in average wages. Table 7 compares the rates of growth given by the Bergson, Chapman, and Becker indexes of total con- sumption with the rates shown by the CIA index. As can be observed, the CIA index increases more slowly than the other Western indexes in all of the periods compared. Many reasons could account for the diver- gence—somewhat different concepts, different treat- ment of some expenditure categories, data availabil- ities, and others. Since none of the indexes has been extended to recent years, there seems little point in trying to measure the impact of these factors. Prob- ably the main reason for the differences is that the CIA index is largely an aggregation of physical measures of consumption weighted by expenditures in I970 prices, while the other Western indexes employ earlier base-year weights and rely much more heavily on deflated value measures, with the deflators differ- ing little from the official retail price indexes pub- lished by the Soviet government. Also, in constructing the CIA index, use could be made of a considerably larger body of data and information that has become available in the past I5-20 years. 335 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.