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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

Open the PDF at page 333 Original source ↗

“Gross”60+ pages

p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 6
Comparison of Official and CIA Measures of Soviet Per Capita Consumption
Indexes Average Annual
(l950= I00) Rates of Growth
_ (Percent)
195°
I955
I958
I960
19651
I965
'96,?
I967
noes
I269
I970
I9:/fl
I972
1973
Soviet Index
of Real Incomes
P____z.-_Z____l@-____...,____._C_,. ,_.___,,, ...__
-. _ ...-__ l9..5_l'.5_5_... T3 4-5
_ _. -__l7.3_..._____-C__-.____-.._._@.___*._C_my-,.g25§ié_9, ,,_;._._
. ._.__._J.37__ . . ._ L51
29 , T7
3.6
4.0 _
2.4-._ W- 12992.
I
. _ _l°?.____- ___.__..___J§§.___ ._____._______C__-g2@9_,_ . .,_,5~9
, . 223 _ "MC ._ _._____17'___ _ _____ ,l°7_l'75____.____ ,4-4
5:‘
2.9
if W236
’Wi2V52
I
189
,_____.. .____._ .,___._“J1?z_,_,,_____._.___ __, ._1.?_7.6-39,
§l._____.-__ . W- 2.19 C... __._ __._.__...-_l?9lfZ9. ,, 4-7
3.4 2.2
268 g_”____ A___2p9Z_____Z __m_________ig§);(>gg____g 4.2W I
73.8
297 W *7 ih W219’ , ___.__..__._._ ___,__'97_1;§°. __.3-9 2-5
_ i f Ni SIQ 226
-
ii
712127 _:W_.,m:i iQ*..~.l?.?§-‘£59. ,’:7,,,7Smfl§1QV i WW 323 3.5
,__ ._._,§?_ W ., 23?. ___
I974 ,.__. _.l52 W _ ___ __ ____ 2-iii ____., _, ____. __._____,,_. _
!975 , ,..__,3,.°§_______,__,_g_;_ ____,252__ _
I976. . . .§§‘L,__.. 357 _._
I977 f W. _____._ __-, _-__ Zéi t
5978” m___30sg__ ‘_ "Mg 269
I979’ WW W D __ m_276*_*
iééo 435 '
282
8 The index was put together from indexes for various periods given
in Narkhoz I965, p. 593; Narkhoz I967, p. 674; Narkhoz I970, p.
537; Narkhoz I975, p. 567; and Narkhoz I980, p. 380.
I’ Table A-2. Growth rates were calculated from unrounded data.
is deflated variously by a cost of living index given in
a Soviet source, the official index of state retail prices,
and an index of the change in average wages.
Table 7 compares the rates of growth given by the
Bergson, Chapman, and Becker indexes of total con-
sumption with the rates shown by the CIA index. As
can be observed, the CIA index increases more slowly
than the other Western indexes in all of the periods
compared. Many reasons could account for the diver-
gence—somewhat different concepts, different treat-
ment of some expenditure categories, data availabil-
ities, and others. Since none of the indexes has been
extended to recent years, there seems little point in
trying to measure the impact of these factors. Prob-
ably the main reason for the differences is that the
CIA index is largely an aggregation of physical
measures of consumption weighted by expenditures in
I970 prices, while the other Western indexes employ
earlier base-year weights and rely much more heavily
on deflated value measures, with the deflators differ-
ing little from the official retail price indexes pub-
lished by the Soviet government. Also, in constructing
the CIA index, use could be made of a considerably
larger body of data and information that has become
available in the past I5-20 years.
335
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.