Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 19 …Monica, Calif, 1962; Becker, 1969; and Sally Anderson, Soviet National Income, I 964-I 966, in…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Figure 7
The Outlays n.e.c. Residual and
a Synthetic Measure
Billion Rubles
Figure 8
Percent
60
5OA—
45'
30' 1
20
G’
1557
Synthetic measure
12
’_—
IXTTTT
8..‘_
Outlays n.e.c. (;"—_
.4__
2i_
Adjusted GNP
Annual Growth Ratesof Soviet Adjusted GNP
and Net Material Product
M Net ....t..i..1i.,;.;.;;;**"'" be so
0“ ”’ ”""" “
._7__
I I I I I I I I I I L I I I I I
O 1965 70 75 80 -4 1951 55 so as 70 vs 79
Comparisons With Official Soviet Data
Another assessment of the reliability of our GNP
accounts can be made by comparing the official
tabulation:
five-year periods are shown in the following
Five- Year Period
Soviet NMP data in constant prices with a synthetic
measure of NMP derived from the GNP accounts.
NMP measures the value added (less depreciation) in
industry, construction, agriculture, freight transporta-
tion, business communications, trade, and “other
branches” of material production. The synthetic
measure of NMP constructed here consists of the
entire value added in industry, construction, agricul-
ture, trade, general agricultural programs, and forest-
Average Annual Percent Growth
Adjusted GNP Net Material
Product
1951-55 7.6 11.1
1956-60 7.1 9.1
1961-65 5.1 6.5
1966- 70 5.6
1971-75 Z7
_.7_-Z
5.7
1976-80 2.6 4.2
ry, and part of the value added of transportation and
communications.
Figure 8 compares the annual growth rates of NMP
in constant prices and the synthetic measure derived
The results show that the synthetic measure grows
more slowly than NMP but that the pattern of annual
from our GNP data. Average annual growth rates by
25
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
fluctuations is quite close to that of the Soviet meas-
ure in constant prices. This result suggests that the ’

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.