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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Consumption Trends and Patterns
Trends in Per Capita Consumption
The level of living of the Soviet people has improved
rapidly during the past 30 years. During 1950-80, real
consumption per capita nearly tripled, rising at an
average annual rate of 3.5 percent (Table 1). Gains
were much smaller in the 1970s than in the l960s and
l950s, reflecting a slowdown in overall economic
growth. While substantial, the growth rates for per
capita consumption are well within the bounds of
those found in Western countries in the postwar
period, and Soviet living standards remain well below
those in the United States, Japan, and most of
Europe, both East and West.°
Over the pefiiod as a whole, per capita consumption of
goods has risen faster than consumption of services,
although this relationship was reversed in the l970s.
Among the three major goods categories, by far the
fastest growth took place in consumption of durables,
as the Soviet government sought to develop productive
capabilities for consumer durables from very low
levels. Soft goods, too, have been made available in
rapidly growing quantities and improved quality and
variety. Although quantitative gains in food supplies
have been the slowest of the three goods categories,
the quality of the diet has nonetheless improved
greatly, shifting toward a pattern of less reliance on
bread and potatoes and more reliance on meat and
dairy products—a shift typical of other countries as
per capita income levels rise. This shift toward a more
modern dietary pattern slowed in the 1970s as a result
of faltering agricultural progress.
Among the services, household services as a group g
grew considerably faster than communal services.
Particularly rapid expansion occurred in the provision
of transportation, communications, and utilities. ln
contrast, per capita availability of housing increased
very slowly, with per capita living space in urban
areas in l98O still remaining below the minimum
norm for health and decency set by the government in
1928. Repair and personal care services increased
even more slowly than did housing until the latter half
of the 1960s, when the government began a belated
push to expand facilities for providing such services.
Recreation services, measured mainly by movie and
"
For a detailed international comparison of relative levels and rates
of growth of consumption see Gertrude E. Schroeder and Imogene
Edwards, op. pit.
325
93-89? O - 82 — 22
theater attendance, expanded rapidly during the
1950s but slowed sharply thereafter, reflecting the
rapiclly growing use of television and less organized
forms of recreation.
ln contrast to the pre-war period, provision of commu-
nal services per capita has increased much less rapidly
than provision of goods and personal services. Health
services have grown somewhat faster than education
services over the period as a whole. Growth rates for
both services have been quite uneven among 5-year
periods, and there has been a pronounced slowdown in
the expansion of both in the l970s. Nonetheless.
educational attainment of the population has risen
substantially—from almost 5 years in I950 to a little
over ‘9 years in l980.“‘ Health services measured by
the number of doctors and hospital beds per l0,000
population have more than doubled, although the
quality of public health services may be seriously
flawed, if one may judge from the significant in-
creases in infant mortality rates in the past l0-I5
years."
The discussion thus far has referred to growth rates
given by indexes aggregated with weights in estab-
lishecl prices. As noted below, appreciably lower rates
result, when component indexes are aggregated with
factor cost weights. Differences occur in the growth
rates for total consumption, goods, food, household
services, and for services as a whole. When the
concern is to indicate the expansion of real resources
allocated to consumption, the indexes of consumption
at factor cost are preferable. A summary comparison
of growth rates for consumption and major categories
measured in both sets of prices is given in Table 5
below.
Changes in the Structure of Consumption
The structure of consumption in the Soviet Union has
been remarkably stable since 1950 (Table 2). Whether
measured in established prices or at factor cost, the
respective shares of goods and of services were about
'°
CIA, USSR: Trends and Prospects in Educational .4!taintm'nt.
ER 79-10344, June 1979, pp l, 23.
“ Christopher Davis and Murray Feshbaeh. Rising In/km! Mortal-
ity in the USSR in the 1970s, US Department of Commerce
Bureau of the Census, International Population Reports, Series P-
95, No. 74, June 1980.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.