Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table C-5 Million tons USSR: Derivation of Milling Byproducts Available for Livestock Feeding 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 _ (est.) Total 13.15 13.12 11.88 10.65 13.60 13.38 14.06 Wheat flour“ 9.89 9.78 8.82 7.74 10.31 10.07 10.66 Rye flour“ 1.14 1.13 .85 .66 1.00 .98 1.03 Groatsb 2.12 2.21 2.21 2.25 2.29 2.33 2.37 3 The difference between quantity of flour produced and the quantity of grain required to produce the flour. Data for flour production for 1973-74 are from Narkhoz 1975, p. 297, for 1975-78 are from Narkhoz I 978, p. 184. The share of wheat flour was 83 percent of to- tal flour in 1973-74, 84 percent in 1975-76, and 85 percent in 1977- 78; the remainder is assumed rye flour. The amount of byproducts from production of flour other than wheat and rye is negligible. Extraction rates for wheat flour, for 1973-78 are assumed to be 78.3, 78.1, 80.0, 78.0, 78.0; for rye flour, 86.5, 86.3, 88.8, 91.0, 86.5. The assumptions are guided by official statements concerning changes in shares of sortovaya (graded) flours produced. b The difference between the quantity of groats produced and the quantity of grain required. Data on production of groats are found in the following sources: 1973: M ukomol ‘no-elevatornaya i k0mbikor- movaya promyshlennost’, no. 3, 1974, p.2; 1974: P.A. Lokshin, Spros proizvodstvo torgovlya, Moscow, 1975, p. 74. 1975, 1979: Vest stat, no 10, 1980, p. 79. 1976-78 are interpolated. The extraction rate for groats is 62.5 percent, the same as rice. The above sources do not always give total groats production; in those cases where the quantity produced above plan is the only indication of production, production for the current year is assumed to be production of the previous year plus the quantity produced above plan. seems likely that private sector feeding of vegetables would be substantial and could be equal to socialized sector feeding in some years. Whole milk. Quantities of whole milk fed to livestock are estimates based on incomplete data for most years. Official statistics for the total quantity of whole milk fed could be found for only one year, 1970. The series is derived in table C-10. C. Eggs for Hatching For the years 1953, 1957-60, and 1965-70, Soviet sources provide data on numbers of young poultry hatched in incubators. These data are used to calcu- late a poultry balance to estimate the number of birds expended per unit of poultry meat. These data, how- ever, probably exclude eggs hatched in the private sector. The ratios in table C-11 are arbitrarily interpolated and extrapolated to derive estimates of the number of birds expended and lost in other years. The ratios indicate that the average weight of poultry slaugh- . tered for meat is dropping which is consistent with increasing emphasis on production of broiler meat. Previously, almost all poultry meat came from culled laying hens, which tend to be heavier than broilers. We use an estimated hatching rate of 65 percent, which compares with 77 percent in the US in recent years.“° No allowance has been made for changes in the hatching rate over time. The mortality rate for poultry used to increase flocks is estimated at 20 ‘ percent."° Table C12 shows estimates of hatching eggs for all years. “" Calculations of hatching rates for the US rely on data from USDA, Agricultural Statistics 1978, pp. 403 and 414. Chicks hatched by commercial hatcheries can be compared with statistics on eggs used for hatching. The implied hatching rate is 70-80 percent for 1975-77. The actual hatching rate may be higher since eggs used for hatching include eggs hatched on farms while the figures on chicks hatched are only for commercial hatcheries. '1" Mortality rates for the US can be calculated from ibid., p. 400. The number of chickens produced in the US is shown as the sum of the number raised minus the number lost. The mortality rate is about 15 to 20 percent. We assume this rate is valid for all types of poultry. 310 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.