Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table C-4 USSR: Derivation of Grain Fed to Livestock W f 1973 1974 ' Million tons 1975 1976 1977 1978 ' 1979 :l:ota_l"§ncentr_aitesj f_ 1 17.OU_ 127.9 112.9 117.4 __7__i43.o__ _N_l1_5_.9_ __ 146.6 grainl=__¥_ ___ A 99.10 __1o9.s2 _ 101.23 99.44 121.91 124.70 125.07 Milling byproducts C Wl2.10 12.07 _ .1133 .. 9~§9 _...'..3;5l .12-5.1,. 12.94 f Oilseed meal ‘ _ ____ Official L NA NA silt 7773.48 775737.637‘ 5/773.317’ 3.19 5 Calculated = 3J3 3.42 1-517':._ ?5§fi'..§f.§jf..I.;l..s.;.;.._ f;-§ . Alfalfa meal Y 2.07 2.79 3.60 4.68 4.95 5.58 5.40 8' 1979: Narkhoz 1979. p. 284, 1975-78: Narkho;l978, p. 258, 1973-74: Narkhoz I975, p. 412. b Total concentrates less milling byproducts, oilseed meal, and alfalfa meal. ¢ Table C-5. According to Ek selkhoz, no. 4, 1971, p. 28, 92 percent of milling byproducts are used as feed. d USDA, data supplied under the US-USSR Agriculture Agree- ment. Maslo-zhiroyava promyshlennosf, no. 2, 1980. Vest stat, no. 10, 1980, p. 79. According to ibid., 75 percent of total output of oilseed meal is used as feed. = A (ER) 75-68, p. 33-34. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. in a massive study, has also calculated the USSR's production of oilseed meals from 1965-75. See A Survey of A comparison of the derived series with the official shows that it understates actual feed use in about half of the years for which the official data are available and overstates by roughly similar quantities in the other half. Thus, error in the series should be offset- ting over time. No serious bias is introduced by the assumption that residual potatoes are fed. Neverthe- less, data for years with drastic inconsistencies, such as 1950 and 1951 have been arbitrarily smoothed. Similarly, for those years when the residual is sub- stantially larger than the usual quantity fed, such as 1973, the statistic has been arbitrarily reduced. Given the possible margin of error already present in the basic data from which the balance is derived , such adjustments do not seem. unreasonable. Data for 1971 forward are rounded to millions because the underly- ing data for the balance, particularly for industrial use, are less certain than those for earlier years. i Vegetables. We assume that all vegetables not con- sumed by humans are fed to animals, thatis, produc- tion plus imports less human consumption equals feed. Lack of data precludes adjustments for exports or 309 93-892 O — 82 — 21 the Oilseeds, Oils, Fats, and Protein Meal Sector in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic, CCP:OF 7/C.R.S.1, March. 1977,11. 41. The FAO quantities of oilseed meal produced are higher than our calculations and also higher than the official statistics for the years in which both are available. ‘Estimated at 90 percent of procurements as reported in the central press. 8 Because the official data have again been made available to the United States through the US-USSR Agricultural Agreement, or have been published, calculating the quantities of oilseed meal available for feed use is no longer necessary. NOTE: Components may not add to total because of rounding. \ inventory change. No vegetables are reported to have been exported. Inventory change data—available only in value terms for the retail trade system——groups vegetables with fruits and berries. Because the value of inventories has been fairly constant at 10 percent of retail sales of the same products it seems unlikely that lack of an inventory adjustment seriously biases the vegetables fed series over time. The series for vegeta- bles fed is derived in table C-8. In contrast to feeding of potatoes where some data are available, no data on total vegetables fed could be found. A few statements on quantities fed on state and collective farms or on collective farms alone were found. These quantities, ranging from 600 thousand tons in 1966 (Plan khoz, no. 1, 1967, p. 25) to 3.1 million tons in 1973 (L.T. Dageev, Podsobnyye prO— myshlenniye predpriyatiya v sel 'sk0m khozyaystve, Moscow, 1976, p. 14) were from half to two-thirds of the derived quantity assumed fed. Because the private sector produces nearly a third of total vegetables. it Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.