Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 The most complete data on grain seeding are available for oblasts of the RSFSR (G. V. Kulik et al., Spra- vochnik ekonomista kolkhoza i sovkhoza, Moscow, 1970, pp. 417-428). Data are also available for Belo- russia (I. M. Kachuro et al., Normativnye materialy po seI'sk0mu khozyaystvu, Minsk, 1969, p. 46-50) and for Moldavia (F. Goryachenko, Spravochnik ekonomista p0 planirovaniyu v kolkhozakh 1' s0vkh0- .zakh, Kishinev, 1967, p. 189). Seeding rates for all other Soviet republics are estimated from these three sources. Seeding in nonchernozem oblasts of the Ukraine is estimated at the rate for Belorussia while the remaining Ukrainian oblasts are assumed compa- rable to Rostov oblast in the North Caucasus. Kok- chetav and Northern Kazakhstan are equated with Omsk in Western Siberia; all other Kazakhstan ob- lasts are assumed seeded at rates for Orenburg in the Ural region. Belorussian seeding rates are applied to the Baltic republics. The Central Asian republics of Kirgizia, Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekis- tan are assumed comparable to the Kalmyk and Dagestan ASSRs. The Dagestan analog is also used for Azerbaydzhan, Armenia, and Georgia. For pulse crops, a weighted seeding rate for each republic was derived by combining sown area with seeding rates for peas, kidney beans, lentils, other pulses, as well as vetch, lupin, and seradella for grain. Belorussian seeding rates for each pulse crop are assumed applicable to the Baltic republics; rates for Moldavia are available from Goryachenko, and all- RSFSR rates were used for remaining republics. Corn for silage and green fodder is assumed sown in all republics at the midpoint of the range 30 to 40 kilograms per hectare, given as the all-USSR seeding rate in S.D. Kosaurov et al, Norrpativnyy spravochnik seI'sk0kh0zyaystvenn0g0 proizvodstva, Moscow, 1967, p. 17. B. Agricultural Commodities Used for Feed Grain. The basic data for grain fed in 1960-79 are derived from official Soviet statistics on quantities of concentrates fed. The methodology is explained in A (ER) 75-68, p. 33-34, which sets out the calculations for 1960-73. The data since 1970 have been revised slightly‘ because data on extraction rates for flour— which changed the estimate of millfeed concentrates 307 available——have been updated. The data for 1973-79 are presented in table C-4. To estimate grain fed during 1950-59, an index based on quantities of concentrates required annually to produce livestock products, to increase herd inventories, and to maintain horses was used. This synthetic index agrees generally with an index based on the official series of concen- trates fed in later years. (See ER 79-10057, USSR: Long-Term Outlookfor Grain Imports, January 1979, p. 13.) Because the requirements-based index is more consistent with what we believe occurred during the 1950s, we have chosen to use the requirements-based index to estimate quantities of grain fed during 1950- 59, that is, the index was used to move the 1960 estimated quantity of grain fed (the base weight) back to 1950. Estimated quantities of grain fed are reduced by the same type of discount—based on weather conditions and crop size—used to discount grain production (see discussion on pp. 18-19, above.) Potatoes. Data for potatoes fed are taken from official Soviet statistics for 1961-70, published in United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Re- search Service, Foreign 355, (undated), Livestock Feed Balancesfor the USSR, p. 20. For 1950-60 and 1971-79, quantities of potatoes fed are estimated from an independently constructed balance. We assume potatoes not used for seed, human consumption, and industrial uses are fed to livestock. Table C-6 presents the basic data from which the balance is derived. Table C-7 shows the estimated quantities of potatoes available for feed. The calculation is as follows: Cto) + 1(0) + C(1)+ 1(1) Q = P(0)- S(1)- _ _ . 2 V Q = residual quantity available for feed ' production of current year seed required for crop of next year human consumption of current year , industrial use of current year human consumption of next year industrial use of next year‘ where Pto) = 'S(1) = C(o) = 1(0) = Cu) = I(|) = Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.