Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix C USSR: lntrasector Use of Agricultural Output A. Estimates of Grain and Potatoes Used for Seed Sown Area. Quantities of grain and potatoes needed for seed are derived by multiplying estimated seeding rates by sown area. Table C-1 shows the area sown to grain and potatoes in 1950-79. Except for winter wheat, winter rye, and winter barley, sown area statistics for grain and potatoes are taken from offi- cial Soviet handbooks as follows: 1979 Vest stat, no. 10, p. 74; Narkhoz I979, pp. 244- 245. 1978: Narkhoz I978, pp. 218-219. 1977: Narkhoz I977, pp. 226-227. 1976 Vest stat, no. 3, 1978, p. 83. 1965, 1970-75: Narkhoz I975, pp. 347, 353-355. See also Selkhoz I971, pp. 120-123; Vest stat, no. 4, 1977, p. 84; Vest stat, no. 5, 1976, p. 86; Vest stat, no. 5, 1975, p. 92; Vest stat, no. 10, 1974, p. 87. 1960, 1966-69: Selkhoz I971, pp. 109-111, 116-123, 127, 133. . 1963-64: Narkhoz I965, pp. 284, 296-297, 299-301, 305; and Selkhoz I971, p. 109. 1961-62: Narkhoz I962, pp. 258-260; Selkhoz I971, pp. 108-109; Narkhoz I964, p. 284.. 1950, 1953-59: Selkhoz I960, pp. 132-133, presents data for all crops except spring rye. Area sown to corn for silage and green fodder was derived by subtracting the area for fully ripe corn from total area sown to corn. Spring rye data are from Posevnyye ploshchadi SSSR, vol. 1, Moscow, 1957, p. 7. An arbitrary estimate of spring rye production was added to official statistics for winter rye production in 1957 and 1959. 1951-52: Posevnyye ploshchadi SSSR, vol. I, Mos- nearly comparable to harvested area than to sown area. The official statistics understate total sown area by the number of hectares that were sown the pre- vious fall but subsequently were lost to winterkill or used for early spring grazing. As a result, official statistics on area sown to winter wheat, winter rye and winter barley must be augmented by estimates of area sown in the fall but not occupied by winter grain at the completion of spring planting. Total area sown in the fall is estimated from information in the Soviet press. Reports of sown area are made at weekly intervals from September through late October.” Area sown as reported by the press is larger than that reported in the handbooks by the number of hectares winterkilled or used for early grazing. Table C-2 shows our estimates of a‘rea sown to winter grain after the adjustment for winterkill and early grazing. Seeding rates. The quantity of grain used for seed is estimated by multiplying the sown area figures shown in table C-1 by seeding rates per.hectare. Seeding rates for the USSR as a whole (table C-3) are weighted averages of seeding rates in each republic. Within republics, seeding rates were compiled for each oblast, and these seeding rates were weighted with 1965 sown area from Soviet statistical hand- books without the adjustment for area lost to winter- kill and early grazing. Theseeding rates are for ‘ sowings of first-class seed, which must meet the criteria of 99 percent purity and 95 percent viability. The seeding rate for potatoes of 19 centners per hectare is reported in S.A. ll’in, Ekonomika pr0iz- cow, 1957, pp. 7, 437, 453, 490, 495. See'also volume vodstva kartafelya, Moscow, 1963, pp. 3, 5. II, p. 192. Figures for rice and corn for silage were interpolated. ' "‘ For example, SeI'skaya zhizn‘, 4 October 1979, reported that 37 million hectares had been sown to winter grain crops and that this area amounted to 89 percent of the planned sown area. A weekOfficial Soviet statistics on arfia sown to grain a¢- " 1 later on 12 October, SeI'skaya zhizn'reported that 38.6 million tually measure the area occupied by sowings at the completion of spring planting. This definition is more 303 hectares had been sown, 93 percent of plan. _ Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.