Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 APPENDIX A USSR: Derivation of Quantity Data Used in the Index of Soviet Agricultural Production This appendix lists the sources for the quantities used in the index of Soviet agricultual production. The index itself is shown in table A-1. Table A-2 summa- rizes the gross output data for crops; table A-3 contains data for output of livestock products and changes in livestock inventories. Gross output of grain and sunflower seeds is discounted for excess moisture and waste before it is used in the index, presented in table A-1. Grain Grain production is taken from official Soviet statis- tics, except for 1951 and 1952 which are estimates. The index uses unrounded data for nine individual types of grain. A figure for “other grain” is calculated by subtracting production of the nine types from the official total. Sources for statistics used in the index are listed below. Unless otherwise indicated, the source cited reports data to the nearest thousand tons for total grain production and for each individual type of grain. 1979: Vest stat, no. 9, 1980, p. 75. 1978: Vest stat, no. 10, 1979, p. 75. 1977: Vest stat, no. 10, 1978, p. 91. 1976: Vest stat, no. 9, 1977, p. 89. 1975: Narkhoz I975, pp. 360-366 contains unrounded production data for all grains except oats and barley. For these grains, data are from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service reporting, SS 7003, 18 February 1977, p. 70. 1974: Production of all grains except rice is reported in Vest stat no. 10, 1975, p. 88. Rice production is reported in Narkhoz I975, p. 365. 1973: Vest stat, no. 10, 1975, p. 88. 1973: Vest stat, no. 10, 1974, p. 88 reports unrounded production data for all grains except rice which is reported in Narkhoz I975, p. 365. 1971: Narkhoz I974 pp. 355-362 reports unrounded production data for all grains except oats, barley, and rice. Data for oats and barley are taken from Nar- khoz SSSR I922-1972, p. 222, and data for rice from Narkhoz I975, p. 365. 1960-70: Unrounded data for all years and for all types of grain are reported in Selkhoz I971, pp. 154- 191. 1950, 1953-59: Unrounded_data for all years and for all types of grain are found in Selkhoz I960, pp. 202- 203. 1951-52: Figures for total grain production and for output of wheat and rye a-re reporting in Selkhoz I 971, p. 152. Production of other grains was estimat- ed using indexes of 1) total production, 2) wheat and rye output, and 3) the residual obtained by subtract- ing wheat and rye output from total grain production. Estimates of individual types of grain are as follows. Buckwheat, oats, pulses Output in 1950 is moved to 1951 and 1952 using an index of the residual obtained by subtracting wheat and rye output from total grain. Rice Output in 1951 and 1952 is arbitrarily held constant at the 1950 level. C'orn for grain CIA/RR ER 64-33, Production of Grain in the USSR, p. 28. Barley Output in 1950 is moved to 1951 and 1952 using an index of total grain production. Millet _ An index of wheat output is used to move 1950 millet output to 1951 and 1952. 285 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.