Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Mineral Wells”2 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 12 Comparison of CIA and USDA Indexes of Soviet Agricultural Production Average Annual Percentage Rates of Growth Average Absolute Percentage Difference 1951-79 1951-60 1961-70 1971-79_ V_>_i ikfl fifiiw __ USDA Index Crops 2.7 3.2 3.7 0.9 K 7-’ —T—lMjTKW W‘, Net livestock 4.0 5.9 3-5 15 L--.,_ _€:_:Qf._§_ ‘ Total 3.1 4.1 3.6 1.5 — CIA Index (net output, 1970 prices) Crops _ 2.4 2.6 3.7 0.7 .0 I 8 Livestock 3 .7 6.1 3.7 1.0 .068 > Total 3.0 4.3 ‘iv “(B T’ .032 CIA Index (USDA methodology, 1970 prices) ' Crops 2.3 2.8 3.5 _ 0.4 .027 Livestock 4.0 6.1 W 3.3 2.4T“? TV .009 W U Z A Total 2.9 4.0 3.4 1.2 7 -9 .0237“ T I 7 Table 13 Percentage shares Comparison of Structure of Output in CIA and USDA Indexes "T 1950 A 19eTfTTY9TSTB?9T USDA index Crops 70 64 Livestock 30_ 36 Total I00 CIA index, 1970 prices Crops 55 1 46 Livestock 45 54 Total I00 I00 CIA index in USDA methodology, 1970 prices Crops 66 58 Livestock 34 42 Total 100 100 65 62 35 38 100 100 I00 46 46 54 54 I00 100 59 54 41 46 100 100 The remaining differences between the indexes are caused by the differences in the price weights. In using prices of Western Europe to value output, the USDA index “understates” somewhat the value of livestock products in terms of Soviet relative prices. Prices for most livestock products compared to crops are relatively lower in Western Europe than in the USSR. Relative prices for crops are more alike in the two systems although Western European grain and potatoes are cheaper relative to other food crops. Table 14 compares relative prices for selected com- modities in the two indexes. In each case, all prices are expressed as index numbers with the wheat price equal to 100. The table shows clearly the disparity in crop prices as opposed to livestock prices in the two systems. D. The US Index of Agricultural Output Both the CIA index of Soviet agricultural production and the official Soviet index of gross agricultural production can be compared with the US index of farm output, which measures-farm output on’both a gross and a net basis.“‘ “’ A complete description of the US index is found in USDA. Major Statistical Series Qf the U.S. Department Q/' Agriculture, vol. 2, 1970, pp. 15-17. The index is published on an annual basis in the USDA statistical handbook. Data for the most recent years are reported in USDA, Agricultural Statistics, I978, Washington, D.C., 1978, p. 445. 283 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.