Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 11 Comparison of CIA and FAO Indexes of Soviet Agricultural Production, 1966-79 8 FAO 1969-71 Prices CIA 1970 Prices CIA Less Livestock Inventory Change 1970 Prices 1966 91.2 86.6 89.2 1967 93.1 86.6 92.6 1968 97.1 91.7 97.7 1 969 92.2 89.0 92.9 1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 1971 102.0 99.6 102.1 1972 97.1 94.0 99.3 1973 113.7 107.8 111.3 1974 108.8 106.5 111.0 1975 106.9 98.2 106.2 1976 111.8 106.1 110.9 1977 113.7 111.0 113.6 1978 122.5 114.6 119.0 1979 115.7 107.-9 113.0 Average annual rates of growth (percent) 1967-70 2.3 3.7 2.9 1971-76 1.9 1.0 1.7 1967-79 1.8 1.7 1.8 Average absolute percentage difference .044 .012 '1 1970=l00 deduction is applied to the value of livestock output to account for use of domestic and imported feed. The feed share is estimated according to the relationship between the value of feeds (excluding forage) and the value of livestock products in 1969-71.“‘ No deduc- tions are made for seed use; grain and sunflower seed are not reduced by a waste allowance. "‘ The USDA 38~percent share is higher than the share of crop- sector feed in livestock output as shown in the 1972 input-output table in current prices. Even when purchases by animal husbandry from the food industry are added, the share of feed in livestock output is still under 30 percent. Crop-sector feed as a share of livestock output in the CIA index is about 20 percent in the 1969- 71 period; it includes only feeds counted elsewhere in the index. In subtracting 38 percent of livestock output for feed, the USDA appears to be deducting more feed than is counted in the output index. Sample coverage in the USDA index resembles that of the CIA index with some minor exceptions. The USDA index includes only sunflower seed in,oilcrop production. In livestock production, the USDA index omits production of honey, silk cocoons, other meat, and livestock inventory change. Table 12 compares growth in the CIA and USDA indexes for the years 1950-79. For the period as a whole and for 11971-79 the USDA index shows faster growth in all categories. The USDA crop index places more weight on output of fruits and vegetables than on grain and potatoes. During 1951-79 fruit and vegetable production grew at an average annual rate of 5.1 percent while grain and potatoes grew by only 1.4 percent. The CIA crop index weights output of grain and potatoes more heavily than fruits and vegetables and therefore grows more slowly. The average absolute percentage difference for crops is only two percent, however, while the difference for livestock is almost 7 percent. To assess the effect of the differing methodologies, a variant of the CIA index was constructed using gross crop production, eliminating livestock inventory change, and applying a 38-percent feed allowance to the value of livestock output‘. This procedure reduced the difference for livestock significantly, but the difference for the crop series increased. By eliminat- ing grain discounts and seed deductions to create a variant of the CIA crop index definitionally com- parable to that of USDA, we increased the weight of grain and potatoes. The effect of this change was to widen the gap in growth between the two crop indexes. Table 13 compares the indexes in terms of crop and livestock shares of net agricultural output. Since 1960 the USDA index shows livestock as representing only about one third of total agricultural output whereas in the CIA index livestock has accounted for more than half of the total value of output since 1960. The CIA index constructed with USDA methodology increases the relative share of crops but this share is still below that in the USDA index. 282 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.