USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 11
Comparison of CIA and FAO Indexes of Soviet
Agricultural Production, 1966-79 8
FAO
1969-71
Prices
CIA
1970
Prices
CIA Less
Livestock
Inventory Change
1970 Prices
1966 91.2 86.6 89.2
1967 93.1 86.6 92.6
1968 97.1 91.7 97.7
1 969 92.2 89.0 92.9
1970 100.0 100.0 100.0
1971 102.0 99.6 102.1
1972 97.1 94.0 99.3
1973 113.7 107.8 111.3
1974 108.8 106.5 111.0
1975 106.9 98.2 106.2
1976 111.8 106.1 110.9
1977 113.7 111.0 113.6
1978 122.5 114.6 119.0
1979 115.7 107.-9 113.0
Average annual
rates of growth
(percent)
1967-70 2.3 3.7 2.9
1971-76 1.9 1.0 1.7
1967-79 1.8 1.7 1.8
Average absolute
percentage
difference
.044 .012
'1 1970=l00
deduction is applied to the value of livestock output to
account for use of domestic and imported feed. The
feed share is estimated according to the relationship
between the value of feeds (excluding forage) and the
value of livestock products in 1969-71.“‘ No deduc-
tions are made for seed use; grain and sunflower seed
are not reduced by a waste allowance.
"‘ The USDA 38~percent share is higher than the share of crop-
sector feed in livestock output as shown in the 1972 input-output
table in current prices. Even when purchases by animal husbandry
from the food industry are added, the share of feed in livestock
output is still under 30 percent. Crop-sector feed as a share of
livestock output in the CIA index is about 20 percent in the 1969-
71 period; it includes only feeds counted elsewhere in the index. In
subtracting 38 percent of livestock output for feed, the USDA
appears to be deducting more feed than is counted in the output
index.
Sample coverage in the USDA index resembles that
of the CIA index with some minor exceptions. The
USDA index includes only sunflower seed in,oilcrop
production. In livestock production, the USDA index
omits production of honey, silk cocoons, other meat,
and livestock inventory change.
Table 12 compares growth in the CIA and USDA
indexes for the years 1950-79. For the period as a
whole and for 11971-79 the USDA index shows faster
growth in all categories. The USDA crop index places
more weight on output of fruits and vegetables than
on grain and potatoes. During 1951-79 fruit and
vegetable production grew at an average annual rate
of 5.1 percent while grain and potatoes grew by only
1.4 percent. The CIA crop index weights output of
grain and potatoes more heavily than fruits and
vegetables and therefore grows more slowly. The
average absolute percentage difference for crops is
only two percent, however, while the difference for
livestock is almost 7 percent.
To assess the effect of the differing methodologies, a
variant of the CIA index was constructed using gross
crop production, eliminating livestock inventory
change, and applying a 38-percent feed allowance to
the value of livestock output‘. This procedure reduced
the difference for livestock significantly, but the
difference for the crop series increased. By eliminat-
ing grain discounts and seed deductions to create a
variant of the CIA crop index definitionally com-
parable to that of USDA, we increased the weight of
grain and potatoes. The effect of this change was to
widen the gap in growth between the two crop
indexes.
Table 13 compares the indexes in terms of crop and
livestock shares of net agricultural output. Since 1960
the USDA index shows livestock as representing only
about one third of total agricultural output whereas in
the CIA index livestock has accounted for more than
half of the total value of output since 1960. The CIA
index constructed with USDA methodology increases
the relative share of crops but this share is still below
that in the USDA index.
282
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421