USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 10
Comparison of Structure of Output in Soviet
and CIA Indexes, Percentage Shares
1950 1960 1970 1979
CIA index, 1970 prices
(net output)
Crops 55 46 46 46
Livestock 45 54 54 54
Total 100 100 100 100
CIA index, 1965 prices
(gross output)
Crops 58 46 46 43
Livestock 42 54 54 57
Total 100 100 100 I00
Soviet official index
(gross output)
Crops 56 51 51 48
Livestock 44 49 49 52
Total 100 I00 100 100
After 1960, the increased weight of the livestock
sector causes the CIA index of gross output to grow
faster than the Soviet index. The CIA measure of
total gross agricultural output grows at 2.9 percent for_
the 1961-79 period as a whole, while the Soviet index
grows at 2.4 percent. Crop output grew more slowly
than livestock output during the period. If the CIA
index had a more complete crop sample, thus decreas-
ing the weight of the livestock sector, growth in gross
output would slow.
B. The FAO Index
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the
United Nations publishes annually an index of net
agricultural output for the world as a whole and for
149 individual countries.“' The output indexes are
weighted with 1969-71 average producer prices of the
given country and incorporate deductions for seed,
feed, hatching eggs, and for waste. The FAO index
for the USSR differs from the CIA index because
changes in livestock inventories are excluded and
because certain semiprocessed feeds such as bran and
oilcake are deducted. Meat output in the FAO index,
"' FAO Production Yearbook, Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations, Rome, 1979, Vol. 33, p. 78.
moreover, is registered in terms of liveweight. Sample
coverage in our index and the FAO index is similar,
especially for crops. In the livestock sector, however,
the FAO index includes animal hides, cheese, dry
milk, and other milk products. g
Table 11 compares the CIA and FAO indexes of net
Soviet agricultural output for those years covered by
the FAO index.“ Although the CIA and FAO index-
es have similar price weights, the average absolute
percentage difference between the two indexes is 4
percent. When the change in livestock inventories is
removed from the CIA index in 1970 prices, the CIA-
FAO match is improved considerably; the direction of
change becomes the same in each year; and the
average difference falls to about 1 percent.
Average annual rates of growth for the 1967-79
period as a whole differ slightly; removal of livestock
inventory change eliminates the difference. In com-
paring the 1971-76 period, the two indexes initially
differ by a large amount. Again, however, the differ-
ence is virtually eliminated when livestock inventory
change is removed from the CIA index. Using growth
rates to assess the similarity of these indexes is thus
ambiguous. We place more weight on the average
absolute percentage difference calculation that shows
the FAO and reconstructed CIA indexes to be the
best match achieved in any of our reconstructions.
C. The USDA Index of Soviet Agricultural Output
The USDA publishes indexes of agricultural produc-
tion for Europe and the USSR.” The index for the
USSR is weighted with 1969-71 average prices re-
ceived by farmers in Western Europe converted to US
dollars at official exchange rates. Production data are
official Soviet output statistics. A constant 38-percent
"’ The FAO revised the index in 1977. Data in earlier editions of
the yearbook are not comparable with currently published data.
Older versions of the index are weighted with 1961-65 average
wheat-based price relatives. These weights are derived by express-
ing the national producer prices for all commodities as a percentage
of the national producer price of an equal weight of wheat. The
older index included a greater number of processed products such
as wine and refined sugar.
"’ The current version of the index was published in May, 1981,
after research for this paper was completed. Unpublished data »
provided by USDA were used to compare the CIA and revised
USDA indexes. The most recent USDA publication is lndices of
Agricultural and Food Production for Europe and the USS R,
ESCS, Statistical Bulletin no. 620, June 1979.
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