USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 8 Percent
Sensitivity Tests of Shares of Net Output
1950 1960 1970 1979
1970 prices
Net crops 5 5 46 46 46
Net livestock 45 54 54 54
Total 100 100
i
100100
No discounts
Net crops 55 48 49 48
Net livestock 45 52 51 52
Total 100 100 100 100
Flat discounts on grain
and sunflowers ‘
Net crops 52 45 46 44
Net livestock 48 55 54 56
Total I00 100 I00 I00
Additional discounts on
crops and eggs
Net crops 53 44 44 44
Net livestock 47 56 56 56
Total 100 100 100 100
Varying animal weight
Net crops 54 46 46 46
Net livestock 46 54 54 54
Total I00 100 100 I00
Feed valued at cost
Net crops 54 44 43 40
Net livestock 46 56 57 60
Total 100 100 100 100
1960 Prices
Net crops 62 53 54 53
Net livestock 38 47 46 47
Total 100 100 100 100
prices.‘°‘ As a result, the average absolute percentage
difference is much larger for livestock output than for
crops.
‘°' In 1962, prices paid to farms were raised for livestock, milk, eggs,
and for some crops. Under the Brezhnev agricultural program,
inaugurated in 1965, procurement price bonuses were established
for quantities of agricultural produce delivered above the plan.
Grain and milk prices were increased. In 1970, livestock prices went
up and 50 percerit price bonuses were introduced for sales above the
plan for livestock, milk, eggs, and wool. In the 1965-1975 period,
procurement prices rose by 70 percent for livestock products while
crop prices rose by only 30 percent. Cattle prices rose by 77 percent
and milk prices by 62 percent. Grain prices went up by only 41
percent during this period. (A. S. Baranov, Gosudarstvenniye
zagatovki v usloviyakh spetsializatsii i konsenlratsii sel 'sk0kho-
zyaystvennogo proizvodstva, Moscow, 1978, p. 162.)
Within the livestock sector, however, when 1960
prices are used, growth accelerates sufficiently to
offset the dampening effect of the increased share of
crop output for all periods except 1951-60. Growth in
livestock output is slower in 1970 prices than in 1960
prices because the largest price increases between
these two years occurred in the slowest growing
components of livestock output—~herd inventories and
meat production. Egg and poultry production posted
the largest increases among livestock products be-
tween 1960 and 1970, but the price increase for eggs
was the smallest among livestock products. The share
of poultry is too small to affect growth in total
livestock output.
VIII. Comparison of the CIA Index with Other In-
dexes of Soviet Agricultural Production
In this section we compare the CIA index with two
Western indexes of Soviet agricultural production—
one compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organiza-
tion of the UN, and the other by the USDA. In
addition, we contrast our index to the Soviet official
index of gross agricultural output. Finally, we" relate
our index in terms of definitions and methodology to
the US index of agricultural output compiled by the
USDA. The following tabulation summarizes growth
in Soviet agricultural production as measured by the
various indexes.
Average Annual Percentage
Rates of Growth
1951-79 1951-60 1961-70 1971-79
Net output
CIA index 3.0 4.3 3.7 1.5
USDA index 3.6 4.1 3.7 1.5
FAO index NA NA NA 0.9
Gross output
Official Soviet 3.2 4.8 3.3 1.4
index
CIA index 3.2 4.6 3.6 1.2
Each comparison is intended to define the extent and
causes of the differences in the indexes. We then
attempt to reconcile the indexes being compared.
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421