Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 index in 1970 prices.‘°’ The average absolute percent- age difference calculation provides an unambiguous measure of the variation among the indexes. These coefficients are shown in the last column of table 7. A. Use of Alternative Discounts and Feed Values In the first test, discounts for grain and sunflower seeds were removed from production and from feed use. In the second, output of these crops and quanti- ties fed were discounted at a flat rate of 20 percent for grain and 8 percent for sunflower seed. In the third variant, additional discounts were made for potatoes (10 percent), vegetables (15 percent), fruits (25 per- cent), sugarbeets (7 percent), eggs (3 percent).‘°‘ Pota- toes and vegetables fed were discounted by the same percentages. The fourth and fifth tests affected live- stock output directly. Feed was valued at cost of production in 1970 rather than at average realized prices for nonfeed uses on the assumption that most crops fed to livestock are not of sufficiently high quality to bring prices as high as average realized prices. In the fourth test, prices applied to changes in livestock inventory were adjusted each year for the variations in weight per procured animal over time.‘°’ Major alterations in the discount for grain and sun- flower seed and the addition of discounts for other crops have little effect on the index of total net output. The average absolute percentage difference in all cases‘ is about 1 percent‘ for total output. Large '°’ Percentage difference (D) is calculated using indexes of output in the following equation: D _ l V279 ICIA index in 1970 prices — variationi 30 t = 1950 CIA index in 1970 prices I06 We adopted the 10 percent discount on potatoes used by Johnson and Kahan in their index, although Soviet sources indicate it may be too low. (D. Gale Johnson and Arcadius Kahan, “Soviet Agriculture: Structure and Growth,“ Comparisons Qf the United States and Soviet Economies, Joint Economic Committee, Con- gress of the United States, Washington, D.C., 1959). The discounts on vegetables, fruits, sugarbeets, and eggs are suggested by Soviet sources. ‘°’ The CIA index rests on the assumption that animals in inventory are on average the same weight as those sold to procurement organizations. This assumption probably is acceptable except for very poor crop years the average weight of animals in inventory would not necessarily correspond to the average weight of animals sold. changes can be made in the discount without chang- ing trends in output growth. Removing the discounts accelerates the growth of crop output slightly except for 1971-79 and raises the share of crop output in total agricultural production. Removing the discount slows growth in livestock output, while the rate of growth for total output remains virtually unchanged. The flat discount of 20 percent on grain and 8 percent on sunflower seed reduces the share of crops in total output. Growth in crop output for the periods shown rises slightly because the weather-related discount was not applied in 1950-54 and is relatively large in 1970 and 1979. Additional discounts on other crops have little effect on the index. The average absolute percentage difference is very small, indicating that discounts on other crops do not affect trends significantly. Accounting for the variation in animal weight over time for purposes of measuring livestock inventory change causes no appreciable change in growth of livestock output. The average absolute percentage difference is 1.1 percent—less than that in crop output caused by altering the discounts. Error in total output is less than one percent. Because average slaughter weights show little change, using 1970 average realized prices to value all herd changes over time gives almost identical results to the more labori- ous process of adjusting the price each year for variations in animal weight. Valuing quantities of grain, potatoes, vegetables, and whole milk fed at average cost of production in 1970-—the fifth test——does not change the value of net output available for sale and home consumption. The procedure lowers the value of crop output and raises the value of livestock output by the same amount. Growth in total output remains the same. Growth in livestock output as well as its share in total output, however, increases because feed deductions are small- er. Crop output grows more slowly when the feed portion of crop output is also valued at cost. B. Use of Alternative Price Weights Average absolute percentage difference calculations indicate that the shift to 1960 prices has the largest effect on the index. As table 8 shows, the share of crops is raised relative to livestock output. Since 1960, prices of livestock products have risen more than crop 276 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.