USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
livestock output along with other feeds produced in
the crop sector, this is a difficult, if not impossible,
task. Problems include lack of consistent and com-
plete production data, extensive waste particularly
spoilage—of these products making it impossible to
know how much of each would actually be fed, and
the difficulty of deriving prices for products that to a
large extent are not sold in the USSR. In any case,
the index of total net output remains the same
whether hay and other forage crops are included in
livestock output or in output of the crop sector.
Grain. Estimates of grain fed to livestock are based on
the official Soviet series for concentrated feed fed to
livestock. According to the Soviet definition, concen-
trated feed includes grain, oilseed meals, dehydrated
alfalfa or other high quality forage, and grain milling
byproducts together with screenings and other ele-
ments of usable waste such as damaged kernels from
grain cleaning operations. Feeds of animal and syn-
thetic origin are not included. The concentrates series
is believed to reflect the excess moisture and waste
found in harvested grain, bunker weight.
To derive the grain component of concentrated feed,
we subtract oilseed meal, grass meal, and grain
milling byproducts from total concentrates. Conceptu-
ally, the remainder consists of grain as well as the
waste associated with the grain production series.“ To
remove waste elements from grain fed, we allocate 80
percent of the quantity of grain written \off in the
" The residual may include small amounts of nongrain, nonoilseed
products which go into the production of mixed feed such as meat,
blood, and bone meals, fish meal, and vitamin and mineral
supplements as well as ground hay and other materials with low
feed energy value. Farms are required to report quantities of mixed
feed fed as one of the components of the concentrates group. It is
not known if the farm reduces the reported quantity of mixed feed
fed to conform with the strict definition of concentrates. To the
extent it does not, we are overstating the quantities of grain fed.
The degree cannot be large, however. In 1978, total production of
meat, blood, and bone meal was 475 thousand tons (Myasnaya
induslriya SSSR, no. 3, 1979, p. 6); production of fish meal
averaged about 600 thousand tons during 1975-77 (information
exchanged under the US-USSR Agricultural Agreement. No data
for 1978 were transmitted.). ‘
grain discount (see above) to feed use." In this way, we
estimate clean grain for feed that is compatible with
the definition of clean grain on the output side.
Although this procedure is arbitrary, it is consistent
with the apparent low overall quality of Soviet grain
used for feed. Estimates of grain fed for 1960 forward
fit fairly well into our grain balance calculations."
Official data on concentrates fed for the 1950s,
however, are not available. Feed can be estimated by
assuming that all grain not allocated to seed, food,
industrial uses, and stocks is fed or by estimating the
quantities of grain required to produce the livestock
products and to maintain or increase herds in those
years.” We chose the second method because grain
balance calculations show only small quantities avail-
able for livestock feed and stock changes in many
years of the 1950s. For several of these years, grain
balance residuals are below the apparent amount of
grain—along with standard norms of nongrain
feeds—required to produce the livestock output ob-
tained in those years. We have not reconciled these
inconsistencies except to note that grain fed estimates
for the 1950s are less reliable than those for later
years. We believe the feed series based on concen-
trates required to produce the output and to support
changes in herds leads to a more reliable measure of
the value of net livestock output in the 1950s than
does a series based on grain balance residuals.”
" We allocate the bulk of grain waste to feed because of the higher-
than-average storage losses as well as a lesser degree of cleaning
associated with grain for feed. Moreover, this would be expected
under Soviet accounting procedures. Soviet farms often clean and
dry drain that is to be marketed in order to avoid financial penalties
for excess moisture and other elements of waste. Grain left on
farms is not usually processed to the same extent.
" See A (ER) 75-68. The balances are updated in ER 79-10057,
USSR: Long-Term Outlook for Grain Imports, January 1979,
p. 15.
’° The latter estimates are derived by multiplying the estimated
quantity of grain required per unit of output times the quantities of
livestock product produced annually in the 1950s. The estimates
also take into account feed necessary to support livestock inventory
change and to maintain horses. Soviet data are available on units of
concentrated feed required per unit of output. See, for example, N.
Burlakov, Ek selkhaz, no. 5, 1972, p. 36. We recognize that the
amount of concentrates required per unit of output is not constant
over time as implied by this methodology. Actual use of concen-
trates depends on quantities of other feeds available to substitute
for or complement the nutrient value of grains and other concen-
trates as well as the mix within concentrates. However, data are not
available to adjust for these fluctuations.
‘° Grain balances for the 1950s are of necessity far more crude and
thus subject to larger error than those we have been able to develop
for 1960 forward.
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421