USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 5 Percent
USSR: Estimated Waste and Losses
in the Gross Grain Harvest
Weather Crop Size Total =
Related Adjustment
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955 7.7 0.5 8.2
1956 10.8 1.0 11.8
1957 7.6 0.0 7.6
1958 10.1 1.4 11.5
1959 10.2 0.6 10.8
1960 9.8 0.2 10.0
1961 8.4 0.3 8.7
1962 7.6 0.0 7.6
1963 7.6 -1.1 6.5
1964 9.8 0.0 9.8
1965 7.6 -0.7 6.9
1966 8.2 0.5 8.7
1967 10.4 -0.2 10.2
1968 8.2 0.4 8.6
1969 13.0 -0.2 12.8
1970 13.8 1.1 14.9
1971 11.0 0.7 11.7
1972 9.6 -0.2 9.4
1973 14.4 2.0 16.4
1974 13.6 0.2 13.8
1975 9.0 -1.2 7.8
1976 13.0 0.7 13.7
1977 15.0 - 0.4 14.6
1978 12.2 1.0 13.2
1979 12.4 -0.9 11.5
1' Total is sum of columns 1 and 2.
output. The same trend is observed if seed is taken as
a share of only gross grain and potatoes. The trend
implies increased output per unit of seed.“
The reverse is true of intrasector use for livestock
output. The share of deductions in gross output
increases over time, even with hatching eggs removed
from the series.-This is consistent with our observation
of increased use of grain for feed in recent years
without proportionate increases in livestock output.“
The increasing share of crop output used for feed also
reflects the shift toward sale and home consumption
of livestock products rather than direct consumption
of crops. ~
A. Grain and Potatoes Used for Seed
Estimating seed use is a relatively straightforward
process. Soviet data on sown area are multiplied by
seeding rate norms to derive quantities of seed needed
for grain and potatoes. We assume that actual seeding
rates approximate those norms prescribed by Soviet
guidelines for farm managers. The total includes area
sown to grain in the fall but subsequently damaged by
winterkill or used for winter and early spring grazing.
The estimate also allows for corn area harvested as
forage (silage, green feed, or dry fodder). Quantities
required for fall seeding of grain and for spring
seeding of grain and potatoes are deducted from gross
output of grain and potatoes in the given year to
derive net output. Gross grain output is first reduced
by the grain discount to eliminate waste. No
allowance is made for seeding of other crops. ~
“’ Because the evidence indicates little or no reduction in seeding
rates per hectare, nearly all the growth in output per unit of seed
results from rising yields per hectare. Average overall grain yields
for the three year period 1976-78 were 54'percent above the
average yield in 1950-72. For the most part, this reflects a
substantial increase in use of fertilizer on grain crops. For example,
measured in standard units, the quantity of fertilizer used on grain
increased from 2.2 million tons in 1960 to 14.6 million tons in 1970.
(See ER 77-10557, The Impact of Fertilizer on Soviet Grain
Output) I960-80, November 1977, p. 19.)
’° Not only has the absolute quantity of grain fed been increasing,
but since 1976, the share of feed units provided by concentrates,
largely grain, has been increasing. For the most part, this trend
reflects the failure of non-grain feed crops (silage, hay, etc.) to
increase at the same rate. (See ER 79-10057, USSR: Long-Term
Outlookfor Grain Imports, January 1979, p. 19.) This trend was
intensified during 1978/79 when the USSR was severely affected
by weather conditions that forced a further increase in the share of
grain being fed.
'
270
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421