Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 5 Percent
USSR: Estimated Waste and Losses
in the Gross Grain Harvest
Weather Crop Size Total =
Related Adjustment
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955 7.7 0.5 8.2
1956 10.8 1.0 11.8
1957 7.6 0.0 7.6
1958 10.1 1.4 11.5
1959 10.2 0.6 10.8
1960 9.8 0.2 10.0
1961 8.4 0.3 8.7
1962 7.6 0.0 7.6
1963 7.6 -1.1 6.5
1964 9.8 0.0 9.8
1965 7.6 -0.7 6.9
1966 8.2 0.5 8.7
1967 10.4 -0.2 10.2
1968 8.2 0.4 8.6
1969 13.0 -0.2 12.8
1970 13.8 1.1 14.9
1971 11.0 0.7 11.7
1972 9.6 -0.2 9.4
1973 14.4 2.0 16.4
1974 13.6 0.2 13.8
1975 9.0 -1.2 7.8
1976 13.0 0.7 13.7
1977 15.0 - 0.4 14.6
1978 12.2 1.0 13.2
1979 12.4 -0.9 11.5
1' Total is sum of columns 1 and 2.
output. The same trend is observed if seed is taken as
a share of only gross grain and potatoes. The trend
implies increased output per unit of seed.“
The reverse is true of intrasector use for livestock
output. The share of deductions in gross output
increases over time, even with hatching eggs removed
from the series.-This is consistent with our observation
of increased use of grain for feed in recent years
without proportionate increases in livestock output.“
The increasing share of crop output used for feed also
reflects the shift toward sale and home consumption
of livestock products rather than direct consumption
of crops. ~
A. Grain and Potatoes Used for Seed
Estimating seed use is a relatively straightforward
process. Soviet data on sown area are multiplied by
seeding rate norms to derive quantities of seed needed
for grain and potatoes. We assume that actual seeding
rates approximate those norms prescribed by Soviet
guidelines for farm managers. The total includes area
sown to grain in the fall but subsequently damaged by
winterkill or used for winter and early spring grazing.
The estimate also allows for corn area harvested as
forage (silage, green feed, or dry fodder). Quantities
required for fall seeding of grain and for spring
seeding of grain and potatoes are deducted from gross
output of grain and potatoes in the given year to
derive net output. Gross grain output is first reduced
by the grain discount to eliminate waste. No
allowance is made for seeding of other crops. ~
“’ Because the evidence indicates little or no reduction in seeding
rates per hectare, nearly all the growth in output per unit of seed
results from rising yields per hectare. Average overall grain yields
for the three year period 1976-78 were 54'percent above the
average yield in 1950-72. For the most part, this reflects a
substantial increase in use of fertilizer on grain crops. For example,
measured in standard units, the quantity of fertilizer used on grain
increased from 2.2 million tons in 1960 to 14.6 million tons in 1970.
(See ER 77-10557, The Impact of Fertilizer on Soviet Grain
Output) I960-80, November 1977, p. 19.)
’° Not only has the absolute quantity of grain fed been increasing,
but since 1976, the share of feed units provided by concentrates,
largely grain, has been increasing. For the most part, this trend
reflects the failure of non-grain feed crops (silage, hay, etc.) to
increase at the same rate. (See ER 79-10057, USSR: Long-Term
Outlookfor Grain Imports, January 1979, p. 19.) This trend was
intensified during 1978/79 when the USSR was severely affected
by weather conditions that forced a further increase in the share of
grain being fed.
'
270
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.