Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 and extraneous matter not found in large quantity in harvested grain in most countries are counted as grain output in the USSR. Other commodities affected are potatoes, sugarbeets, fruits and vegetables, sunflower seed, and eggs." Although waste included in Soviet statistics is an important difference between US and Soviet agricultural statistics, deducting waste is not merely a matter of improving comparability. Waste must be deducted from gross output because it is not included in that part of output available for sale and home consumption. Furthermore, procurement prices apply to output on a “standard” basis, that is, net of excess moisture and trash. The CIA index deducts only for waste and losses in grain and sunflower seed. Potatoes, fruits, vegetables, and eggs are not dis- counted because no consistent methodology or data could be developed to remove waste from these com- modities although Soviet sources claim that losses of these commodities are significant. In the case of sugarbeets, we use procurements as a surrogate for output data. Procurement statistics are expressed in standard weight which, by Soviet definition, excludes waste.” Nevertheless, Soviet sources suggest that losses of potatoes, vegetables, fruits, and sugarbeets are significant. Losses of agricultural output occur at several stages in the production and marketing process. Not all are relevant for measuring net output. Harvesting losses consist of output left in the field at harvest time or lost in transporting the harvested output to the point of weighing and recording. These amounts are never recorded as gross output and therefore need not be deducted; they represent losses of potential output rather than actual output. ' The second stage of losses, which should be deducted from reported output, is that output rendered either totally unusable or unusable in part by weather conditions (rain, frost, snow), by insect or disease " Soviet agricultural periodicals and monographs frequently refer to losses of these commodities. See for example, Ek selkhoz, no. 4, 1979, pp. 60-66.; Ek selkhoz, no. l, 1978, p. 32.; Sel'skaya zhizn, 13 September 1972, p. 2.; Plan khoz, no. 7, 1978, pp. 44-55.; and N.M. Bashkirev, Organizatsiya proizvodstva, zagotovok i p0vy- sheniye kachestva yaits v ptitsevodcheskikh ob 'yedineniyakh, Mos- cow, 1979. ” Selkhoz I971, p. 682. damage, or by damage in harvesting. Combine har- vesting of potatoes, for example, reportedly damages 30 to 40 percent of output.“ Only part of the damaged product would be completely unusable; much would be usable as feed. Reported output should also be reduced by the amount of extraneous matter (weeds, stones, dirt, and so on) that is mixed with the har- vested crop at the time of weighing and recording. Transportation losses incurred in moving the product from the point of weighing and recording to initial storage should also be deducted. Storage losses, primarily spoilage or pest damage in storage facilities, are not relevant for purposes of calculating net output. Once the crop has been har- vested, cleaned, and initially stored, it is theoretically available for use on the farm, for processing, or for export. Subsequent losses in storage and shipping need not be deducted, although these are occasionally very large. Losses of potatoes, for example, in storage after harvesting have been estimated at l0 to 25 percent.” B. Calculation of Waste in Sunflower Seed and Grain The CIA index of Soviet agricultural production makes an 8 percent discount for sunflower seed waste and a fluctuating discount for grain waste. Our estimate of sunflower seed waste is based on a Soviet source that cited the results of calculations for 1958. According to the author, the yield of sunflower seed after cleaning was 8 to 8.5 percent below the gross crop." No subsequent comparable data have been found.” The allowance for grain waste is based on the premise that the level of waste fluctuates primarily according to the amount of precipitation during the two-month ” Ibid. " Ek selkhoz, no. ll, 1979, p. 38. "‘ Ek selkhoz, no. 6, 1959, p. 32. ' ” In the only other reference found, the author claimed that the yield after cleaning was 6 percent below the gross harvest in I970 and 1971. We have not modified our discount because the deriva- tion of these percentages is unclear. The tabulation in which they appear includes production statistics that agree with official data. Sales and procurement statistics in the tabulation differ from those published elsewhere. Tresorukova, op. cit.,p. 53. / 267 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.