Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 better surrogates in that they include price bonuses and penalties, but they are for one producer only. The average of procurement prices paid in 1970 to all producers is the best surrogate for average realized prices. The following tabulation shows where substitutions have been made for average realized prices. Each price used in the index is derived in appendix B. RSFSR List Procurement Average Procurement Prices Paid Procurement Prices to Collective Prices Paid Farms to All Producers Sugarbeets Fruit Flax fiber Cotton Tobacco Tea Makhorka Silk Average Realized Prices Oil crops (except sunflower seed) Honey Grain Potatoes Vegetables Meat Livestock inventory Milk Eggs Wool Sunflower seed potatoes and vegetables, a lower price is used. By virtue of the calculation, quantities of grain fed are standard weight so should be priced at average real- ized prices. Whole milk fed, however, may not be of standard butterfat content—the basis for the price~ so could be overvalued. The effect of this over- statement is small; sensitivity tests indicate that valu- ing feed at Soviet cost of production does not affect trends. (See section VII.) C. The Index The CIA index of Soviet net agricultural production shows steadily declining growth after 1960. This trend is especially prominent in net output of the livestock sector. Table 3 shows indexes of output for major commodity groups in benchmark years related to the base year 1970, while the following tabulation sum- marizes growth rates for these commodities. Average Annual Percentage Rates of Growth - ' 1951-79 I951-60 I961-70 I971-79 The error introduced by these substitutions probably is small. Average realized prices have been used for the most important commodities in the index. In the two cases where list procurement prices have been used the value of output is small. The value of commodities priced with collective farm procurement prices probably is overstated; a comparison of pro- curement prices for commodities where we have prices for state farms, collective farms, and private produc- ers shows that average procurement prices paid to state farms are often somewhat less than those paid to collective farms and private producers. Since collec- tive farm market sales of oilseeds, flax, tobacco, makhorka, silk, cotton, and tea are insignificant, procurement prices in these cases are an acceptable substitute for average realized prices. The average procurement prices understate the value of output significantly only in the case of fruit and honey, where collective farm market sales are substantial. Cotton and tea are sold exclusively through the state procure- ment system. Valuing commodities fed at average realized prices overstates feed use if the portion fed is of much lower quality than the portion marketed. In the case of Grain 2.5 3.4 i°__. I °~_3. _.__ Potatoes 0.2 0} 2.0 -0.5 Fruits and vegetables 5.1 _ 6.5 5.3“ 3.3 Technical crops 3.3 _f 4.6 4.0 i 1.3 Net crop output 2.4 2.6 3.7 Meat 4.1 6.1 f 0.7__k Q 1*-5_._, -2-1 - Milk 3.4 _ 5.7 _3.0 1_._3 __ Other 4.6 9.0 5.5 W ¥i0.9 Net livestock output 3.7 g 6.1 ‘3.7 1.0 C Net agricultural output 3.0 4.3 3.7 0.9 Among crops, fruits and vegetables grew most rapidly over the 1951-79 period, rising from 10 percent of net crop output in 1950 to 22 percent in 1979. Growth in grain output held at fairly steady rates while potato output posted almost no growth. At the same time, potatoes fell from 40 percent of net crop output in 1950 to 22 percent in 1979. Crop output shows more variation in growth rates than the livestock sector where growth rates slowed over the entire period. By 1971-79, only fruits, vegetables, and meat were grow- ing at average annual rates above 2 percent. For many Z59 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.