Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Gross potato production includes without differenti-
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 1
ation the so-called “standard” quality output and the
inferior, nonstandard production grade. To measure
net output of grain and potatoes, gross output is
reduced by quantities used for seed and, in the case of -
grain, by waste. No waste is deducted from gross
output of potatoes because data are lacking. (Our Number of
Components
Category
USSR: Value of Agricultural Output, 1970 *1
Million Percent
Rubles _____n_WW7*7
estimates of seed are discussed below in sections IV Grain 10
and VI.)
Vegetables and Fruits. Production of vegetables and
fruit accounted for almost one-fifth of net crop output
in 1970 with the value of output evenly split. Until the
late 1960s, however, vegetables predominated. Fruit
production has continued to gain and exceeded annual
average vegetable production in 1975-79. The struc-
ture of production in 1970 is shown below.
13657.2 35.5
_.
Potatoes 9286.6 "243 mi
\l
Vegetables 3460.0 9.0
la)
Oil crops 1303.6 3.4
777
4-» vi >_-
Fruits, berries, nu 3296.6 0.6
I I
._.
Sugarbeets 1856.0 4.8
,-Cotton 3s23.9 ______9.9
,_-
Tobacco 475.6 1.2
WWZKF
Makhorka
F
._.
"-5 €¥:§§.!-_:“:i..'.
Fiber flax
”
._.
1068.9 2.8
Million Rubles Percent Tea >- 256.3
V
0.7
Cm “"1
Fruit 3296.6 43-3 Net crop output
“I
Beets 128.3
30502.2 100.0 T161 I
1.9
Cabbage _
711.4 10.6
Meat U! 28797.7“ 51.5
K
Milk ._. 16271.1’ 29.1’ ZZZZZF
Carrots _ 198.0 2.9 Eggs ._-
4074.0 7.3
I
Cucumbers 485.7 7.2 Wool ,_-
1947.9 3.5
“M W
Onions 866.4 12.8 Honey ,_-
336.0 m0.—6 VM_MA~—V
Tomatoes 933.7 13.8 Silk cocoons ._.
171.9 0.3
FM
_Other vegetables 136.5 2.0
Total 6756.6
Livestock 8
1009 inventory
change
4366.8 7.8
“Mm
Gross livestock
output
55965.3 100.0
“"11”
Official Soviet statistics on vegetable production —
published only as a total—include vegetables raised in
“open beds” (field grown), and in hothouses and
heated beds. Field-grown vegetables are by far the
largest category of production.“ Vegetables in our
Less: feed
hatching eggs
10724.6
185.4 __ fiifv
Net livestock
output
Net agricultural
sample include carrots, beets, onions, cabbage, cu- °"'l""
cumbers, and tomatoes. Vegetables not listed sepa-
rately in the CIA index but included in other vegeta-
45055.3 53.9
03557.4 "P1100207
bles (parsley, mushrooms, squash, turnips, radishes,
lettuce, spinach, dill, and so on) accounted for only 2
percent of the value of vegetable output in 1970. Fruit
‘ Melons are often grouped with vegetables in Soviet statistics.
However, melons are not included in official vegetable output
statistics, although they are included in official acreage reports and
in vegetable consumption statistics. Insufficient data are available
on production to include melons in the index.
= In 1970 average realized prices. A more detailed version of this
table covering the years 1950-79 can be found in appendix A.
output includes grapes, berries, and other fruit (ap-
ples, pears, quinces, cherries, plums, apricots, peaches,
and citrus fruit). Fruit is a single entry in the CIA
index because insufficient data exist to derive annual
estimates of individual types. Like grain and potatoes,
gross output of vegetables and fruits should be re-
duced for waste to convert total output to a net basis.
Lack of a consistent time series of required deductions
prevent this adjustment, although waste is no doubt
considerable.
255
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.