USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
An Index of Agricultural
Production in the USSR
I. Summary
The CIA index of Soviet net agricultural production
measures trends in the value of agricultural produc-
tion available for sale and home consumption for each
year in the USSR since 1950. The output index
measures production in the year in which it is pro-
duced, although some of this production may be
marketed or consumed in subsequent years. The index
is devised to measure agriculture’s contribution to
Soviet GNP. The index also has served as the basis for
international comparisons of farm output and for
studies of productivity in Soviet agriculture. The
following tabulation shows the relatively close corre-
spondence of the CIA index and other major indexes
of Soviet agricultural production.
Average Annual Percentage
Rates of Growth
1951-79 1961-70 1971-79
Indexes of net output
CIA 3.0 3.7 0.9
US Department of Agriculture 3.1 3.6 1.5
Indexes of gross output
CIA 3.2 3.6 1.2
Official Soviet 3.2 3.3 1.4
The CIA index is based on output of 28 individual
crops, ten livestock products, and four items of live-
stock inventory change. When the CIA index is
calculated on a gross basis and compared with the
official Soviet index of gross output, the livestock
component covers about 95 percent of the Soviet
measure of livestock products and the crop component
about 80 percent of crop production. We assume that
the trend in output of residual crop and livestock
products is the same as that of the price-weighted
aggregate of commodities included in the sample. In
the CIA index, grain and potatoes make up over half
of crop output while meat and milk dominate livestock
production. The CIA index omits production of hay
and other forage crops, decorative plants, fishing, fur
production, and minor livestock products such as
feathers, beeswax, and silkworm eggs. Also excluded
are manure and “unfinished production” included in
the Soviet definition of gross agricultural production.
Output estimates in the CIA index are largely based
on Soviet agricultural statistics. Estimates are made,
however, where data are missing. Official production
statistics are corrected as necessary for measurement
error, or where Soviet data seriously overstate usable
or standard-weight output. The physical production
data for the commodities in the index are aggregated
for the most part with average prices received by all
producers for products sold in 1970, into two subsector
indexes—one for crops and the other for livestock
output. Average realized prices for the majority of
commodities can be estimated with adequate reliabil-
ity. In some cases, however, state procurement prices
had to be substituted even though they are less
desirable since they exclude collective farm market
prices. Despite this bias, sensitivity tests indicate that
price weights are not a major source of error in the
index.
Much less certain are the estimates of intra-agricul-
tural use of farm output—seed and feed—that are
deducted from gross output to derive net agricultural
production. Seed estimates are based on annual sown
area data and on officially prescribed seeding rates for
a fixed period. The use of a constant seeding rate
probably introduces an element of error, yet seed
estimates are relatively more reliable than those for
feed. Although estimates of grain fed derive from
official data, estimates of potatoes fed are particularly
tentative for years where official data are lacking.
Only occasional Soviet statements on quantities of
whole milk and vegetables fed are available to derive
estimates of quantities fed. Quantities of other com-
modities fed are too small to be a source of substantial
error.
A potentially more important source of error is the
paucity and unreliability of published Soviet agricul-
tural statistics. Although data are more plentiful now
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421