Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 shipped to final demand in a given sector embodies the same value added regardless of whether the machinery is a producer or consumer durable. Based on this assumption, the value added for each machin- ery type can be estimated by multiplying total sector value added by each component’s share of deliveries to final demand. Some bias is introduced by determining the relative importance of producer and consumer durables as described above. Deliveries of many machinery sec- tors to final demand categories other than private consumption undoubtedly include substantial amounts of purely military machinery; not all military hardware is produced in the “other machinery” sector of table B-1. This gives producer durables an exces- sively high weight and consumer durables too low a weight. In the fourth step the producer and consumer dura- bles indexes are calculated separately. Indexes of each type are converted into value added by linking them to the values derived in table B-1: the resulting values are then summed for every year. The fifth step derives the production index for civilian machinery by using the control totals for 1972 value added of consumer durables and producer durables in table B-1, that is, 41,599 and 5,658 million rubles, respectively. Applying these weights to the producer durables and consumer durables indexes and adding them together provide the index for civilian machinery. Finally, the civilian and military machinery indexes are combined into an index of total Soviet machinery production. The weights are obtained according to the following procedure. The figure for military machin- ery production in 1972 (after deducting common use durables) is converted to value added by using the ratio of total machinery final demand to value added as given in the reconstructed 1972 input-output table. The military share of value added in machinery production in 1972 is derived by comparing this value with total value added in the machinery branch. The indexes of output for civilian machinery and military machinery are then used to find the shares in the base year, l970—for military machinery, about one-third and for civilian machinery, about two-thirds. 244 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.