Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix B Computation of the Machinery Index Creation of the machinery index requires two separate tasks: - The relative weights of producer durables, consumer durables, and military machinery as a share of all machinery in the base year must be estimated. v Indexes must be derived to drive these weights over time to record the growth in production. These two tasks can be decomposed into the following six steps: The first step is to determine which input-output sectors produce consumer and / or producer durables. Unfortunately, information was inadequate to divide consumption final demand between private and public consumption in the reconstruction of the 1972 input- output table. Thus, we are forced to use the 1966 input-output table in 1970 prices as the basis for splitting machinery deliveries to consumption into private and public components.‘ Of the 27 machine- building and metalworking (MBMW) sectors in the 1966 table, all except possibly one manufacture pro- ducer durables and only eight produce consumer durables based on patterns of deliveries to final demand. The second step is to construct indexes representing each type of durable for as many of the machinery sectors as possible. These sector indexes are con- structed in much the same way as they are for other branches. The products for every sector are valued in 1 July 1967 prices and then summed for every year. The one difference is that some of the sectors produc- ing both consumer and producer durables are divided into two subsamples, resulting in two indexes for these sectors. Occasionally the sample for a given sector is so limited in scope that we are compelled to use the same index to move both producer and consumer durables. ' A version of this table appears in Vladimir G. Treml and Gene D. Guill, “Conversion of the 1966 Producer’s Price Table to a New Price Base,” in Treml, Studies, pp. 197-281. 241 Ideally we should have 35 indexes: 27 for the sectors that manufacture producer durables and eight for those making consumer durables. Because of informa- tion gaps reasonable indexes can be constructed for only 27 of the possibilities—20 producer durable sectors and seven consumer durable sectors. More- over, in three of these sectors the same index is used for both kinds of machinery. The sectors with missing indexes and their estimated share of machinery value added in 1972 are as follows: Percentage Share of Value Added Total i 31.8 Cables—consumer durables l.l NEGLCables—producer durable; K Casting machine & equipment—producer 0.1 durables Tools and dies—producer durables _>_1;3VWmvfi*i Construction materials Machine & equipment-—producer durables 0.5 if Bearings—producer durables 1.0 27.4 Abrasives—producer durables 0.4 Other machinery—nonconsumer durables Although the tabulation above casts considerable doubt on the coverage of the index for machinery, with nearly one-third of value added unaccounted for, it is somewhat misleading. The bulk of the missing share is in the “other machinery” sector, which is commonly believed to conceal a large military ma- chinery component that is captured elsewhere in our index. If it is assumed that all of the “other machin- ery” is military and the totals are accordingly adjusted, the missing sectors combined add to less than 6 percent of the total. The third step consists of estimating value added in 1972 for each sector and type of machinery (see table B-1). To do this we assume that every ruble of product Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.