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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

Open the PDF at page 213 Original source ↗

“Gross”60+ pages

p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 15
Gross Output and Value Added in Input-Output Tables at Constant Prices
(Average Annual Percentage Rate of Growth)
Sector 1960-66 1967-72
Gross Value
Output Added =
(percent) (percent)
Difference
(percentage
point)
Gross
Output
(percent)
Value
Added =
(percent)
Difference
(perce
point)
ntage
Metallurgy 7.4 8.3 -0.9 5.7 3.3 2.4
Coal 0.8 — 1.4 2.2 2.0 -1.0 3.0
Oil 8.6 9.8 -1.2 12.7 13.1 -0.4
Gas 17.8 17.8 0 5.6 4.9 0.7
Electric power 1 1.6 14.0 — 2.4 8.3 9.1 -0.8
Machinery _13.1 12.0 1.1 10.2 12.3 -2.1
Chemicals and petrochemicals 11.8 12.5 -0.7 9.4 9.6 -0.2
Wood products 3.8 3.2 0.6 5.3 5.0 0.3
Paper 4.3 5.2 -0.9 11.7 10.9 0.8
Construction materials 7.7
I
9.2 -1.5 7.8 7.8 0
Light industry 5.7 6.0 -0.3 7.1 8.1 -1.0
Processed food b 4.8 NMF NMF 5.2 NMF NMF
Industry without processed 7.8 7.3
food
0.5 8.2 8.5 -0.3
NMF means no meaningful figure.
3 Including amortization deductions.
bA comparison for processed food is not possible because of the
negative value added in this sector owing to heavy state subsidies.
results of this comparison (table 15) suggest that gross
output does change, for the most part, in line with
value added. In over two-thirds of the comparisons the
differences in growth rates between gross output and
value added are less than 1 percentage point. The
cases with the largest divergence in growth rates are
coal in both periods, electric power in 1960-66, and
metallurgy and machinery in 1967-72. In general,
value added tended to grow slightly slower than gross
output in the early period and faster in the later
period.
These results indicate that the assumption of a con-
stant ratio of value added to gross output should not
bias the SPIOER indexes much as measures of value
added. Moreover, in those instances of wide disagree-
ment between the gross output and value-added
growth in table 15, the explanation may lie in the
unreliability of the price deflators used for machinery
output (and input) and changes in product mix within
input-output sectors. If subsectors within any of the
18 sectors have widely disparate gross output to value-
added ratios, the growth of gross output for the full
sector need not match that of value added. SPIOER
partially circumvents the product mix problem by
disaggregating industrial production to a more de-
tailed level than represented in the 18-sector input-
output tables used by Treml and Guill. The greater
level of detail in SPIOER allows variations in the
ratio of value added to gross output at the 18-sector
level and freezes the ratio only at a more detailed
sectoral breakdown.
On balance, the effect on the SPIOER indexes of the
inability to construct true indexes of value added—a
problem that exists in the production indexes of many
211
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.