Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 15 Gross Output and Value Added in Input-Output Tables at Constant Prices (Average Annual Percentage Rate of Growth) Sector 1960-66 1967-72 Gross Value Output Added = (percent) (percent) Difference (percentage point) Gross Output (percent) Value Added = (percent) Difference (perce point) ntage Metallurgy 7.4 8.3 -0.9 5.7 3.3 2.4 Coal 0.8 — 1.4 2.2 2.0 -1.0 3.0 Oil 8.6 9.8 -1.2 12.7 13.1 -0.4 Gas 17.8 17.8 0 5.6 4.9 0.7 Electric power 1 1.6 14.0 — 2.4 8.3 9.1 -0.8 Machinery _13.1 12.0 1.1 10.2 12.3 -2.1 Chemicals and petrochemicals 11.8 12.5 -0.7 9.4 9.6 -0.2 Wood products 3.8 3.2 0.6 5.3 5.0 0.3 Paper 4.3 5.2 -0.9 11.7 10.9 0.8 Construction materials 7.7 I 9.2 -1.5 7.8 7.8 0 Light industry 5.7 6.0 -0.3 7.1 8.1 -1.0 Processed food b 4.8 NMF NMF 5.2 NMF NMF Industry without processed 7.8 7.3 food 0.5 8.2 8.5 -0.3 NMF means no meaningful figure. 3 Including amortization deductions. bA comparison for processed food is not possible because of the negative value added in this sector owing to heavy state subsidies. results of this comparison (table 15) suggest that gross output does change, for the most part, in line with value added. In over two-thirds of the comparisons the differences in growth rates between gross output and value added are less than 1 percentage point. The cases with the largest divergence in growth rates are coal in both periods, electric power in 1960-66, and metallurgy and machinery in 1967-72. In general, value added tended to grow slightly slower than gross output in the early period and faster in the later period. These results indicate that the assumption of a con- stant ratio of value added to gross output should not bias the SPIOER indexes much as measures of value added. Moreover, in those instances of wide disagree- ment between the gross output and value-added growth in table 15, the explanation may lie in the unreliability of the price deflators used for machinery output (and input) and changes in product mix within input-output sectors. If subsectors within any of the 18 sectors have widely disparate gross output to value- added ratios, the growth of gross output for the full sector need not match that of value added. SPIOER partially circumvents the product mix problem by disaggregating industrial production to a more de- tailed level than represented in the 18-sector input- output tables used by Treml and Guill. The greater level of detail in SPIOER allows variations in the ratio of value added to gross output at the 18-sector level and freezes the ratio only at a more detailed sectoral breakdown. On balance, the effect on the SPIOER indexes of the inability to construct true indexes of value added—a problem that exists in the production indexes of many 211 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.