Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Figure 7 Comparison of Production of Producer Durables and Adjusted Investment Index: 1970=lO0 §0_ R5_ WE0_ W%_ 6_O__ WZ]__ / '1' Machinery investment "— Producer durables / 0 1950 lllllllllllllllllllllL_lllllllll 55 60 65 70 75 80 The close correspondence between the two series over the postwar period suggests that the producer dura- bles sample is representative of the total output of this type of machinery. When examining growth rates instead of indexes, as shown in the tabulation below, the relationship between the two series does not appear quite as close: Average Annual Growth of Percent Adiusted Machinery Investment and Producer Durables Adjusted Machinery Investment SPIOER Producer Durables 1951-55 1956-60 10.0 12.4 1961-65 9.6 8.9 1966-70 7.7 7.8 1971-75 9.1 8.6 1976-79 5.2 6.3 1951-79 9.5 9.4 14.6 11.8 In some periods the two series diverge substantially in terms of average annual rates of growth. Both series grew at about the same rate from 1950 to 1979. The machinery investment series may also be susceptible to the effects of new-product pricing and hence disguised inflation. Thus, the close relationship could mean that the producer durables index has not successfully removed all traces of disguised inflation and has some upward bias. Sample Representativeness Sample Coverage. A statistical sample should at least include enough items to ensure that the characteris- tics of the sample approach those of the total. In 207 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.