Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Figure 6 SPIOER and Official Series: Comparison of Annual Growth Rates for Industry Percent l8 ?\fi— \\ /\’ \ Z\ / \\_ I Hi mi éi a___ 4-‘ \_\ ’_~/°\_/'_' ‘ 2____ fl/' -\ '__ Official“ i SPIOER difference —" Differenccb \ / \ \/\ \_. §~_@--—_§Z_ u||i||iu||Tuu\I*'lI 0 1950 3Narkh0z bThis is the annual growth rate of the official series less the SPIOER rates. 55 60 65 70 75 80 for the machinery and equipment component of in- vestment since investment goods make up the major portion of producer durables. The official series for investment in machinery should be comprehensive with each individual product valued at its own price (unlike SPIOER’s index for producer durables pro- duction, which is based on a sample). Before performing the comparison the investment series must be adjusted to a production basis. Machin- ery does not appear in the investment data as soon as it is produced. In addition, some allowance must be made for foreign trade. Domestically produced ma- chinery that is exported never appears in the invest- ment data. Likewise, imported machinery appears in the investment data, but is never reflected in the production data. Given the frequent delays in the construction indus- try, we assume that on average production or imports of machinery are reflected in investment after a year’s lag. Implied Production K = Investment I +1 — Net Imports z The investment series so adjusted is compared with the SPIOER producer durables series in figure 7." ” Foreign trade in machinery and equipment is reported in Vneshnyaya torgovlya SSSR in current foreign trade rubles; in contrast the investment series is reported in constant estimate prices of 1969. The foreign trade data are adjusted in the following way. First, net imports of machinery and equipment are computed in current foreign trade rubles. Second, a price index for imports is derived by comparing the relative growth of two series for total imports-—one in comparable prices and the other in current prices. This implicit price index is used to deflate machinery imports, even though it is based on all imports, including non-machinery pro- ducts. Hence some possible error is introduced by this procedure unless machinery prices have moved in the same pattern as all import prices. Finally, net imports of machinery and equipment in constant prices are adjusted to domestic prices by using a coeffi- cient of 0.978 estimated by Vladimir Treml for 1972. Although the assumptions used to make the foreign trade data comparable with the investment data may be tenuous, machinery imports are a small share of investment. 204 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.