Documents / FOIA release
USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80
Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
- p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national
product and its components…
- p. 5 …quantified estimates of
the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
- p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based
on gross output rather than value…
- p. 7 …For
example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of
agricultural…
- p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used
by agriculture (seed and…
- p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet
eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
- p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x
I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
- p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80
By…
- p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972
6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
- p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421
Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39
by…
- p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture
B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
- p. 17 …I
Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use,
I if
I970
D-6.
I…
- p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981
Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982
Soviet Economic…
- p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421
Gross National Product
of the USSR, 1950-80
Introduction
This paper presents…
- p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices,
1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
- p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet
Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for
selected OECD countries.” For…
- p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross
National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128.
difference between the growth…
- p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis.
The enterprise is expected to be managed…
- p. 41 …the business sector
and are included in gross private business investment.
The second US account shows…
- p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax
amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
- p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross
outputs of the sugar and other…
- p. 45 …The capital stock data used
in this study are gross of depreciation.
Approved for Release: 2019…
- p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 8 Billion Rubles
Gross National Product of the Soviet Union '
in…
- p. 48 …The row and column sums are
determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec-
tively…
- p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 10 Percent
1970 Soviet Gross National Product
by End Use
W…
- p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed
as a residual—the difference between gross output
and current material…
- p. 53 …Therefore, if in-
dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the
gross output…
- p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures
the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the
physical…
- p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable
than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
- p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421
Appendix A '
Soviet Gross National
Product, 1950-80
This appendix presents the…
- p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
- p. 60 …4
._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5
1.0
Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
- p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
- p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___
Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
- p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0
Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
- p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“
'
Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
- p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4
Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
- p. 66 …9
0.3
2.5
0.3
Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
- p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
- p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
- p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _
Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
- p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1
Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
- p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_;
Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
- p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘
Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
- p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1
Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
- p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
- p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
- p. 78 …g
4.3
0.0 0.0
Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
- p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2
Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
- p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W
Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
- p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8
Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
- p. 82 …3.2
7*
1.4 1.3
Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
- p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5
Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
- p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3
7
17717
Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
- p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9
Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
- p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g
Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
- p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1
Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
- p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8
Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
- p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur-
chases from the deflated gross output produces value
added in constant…
- p. 90 …The
ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to
gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Figure 6
SPIOER and Official Series: Comparison of Annual Growth Rates for Industry
Percent
l8
?\fi— \\ /\’ \ Z\ / \\_ I
Hi
mi
éi
a___
4-‘ \_\ ’_~/°\_/'_' ‘
2____ fl/'
-\
'__ Official“
i SPIOER difference
—" Differenccb
\ / \
\/\ \_.
§~_@--—_§Z_
u||i||iu||Tuu\I*'lI
0 1950
3Narkh0z
bThis is the annual growth rate of the
official series less the SPIOER rates.
55 60 65 70 75 80
for the machinery and equipment component of in-
vestment since investment goods make up the major
portion of producer durables. The official series for
investment in machinery should be comprehensive
with each individual product valued at its own price
(unlike SPIOER’s index for producer durables pro-
duction, which is based on a sample).
Before performing the comparison the investment
series must be adjusted to a production basis. Machin-
ery does not appear in the investment data as soon as
it is produced. In addition, some allowance must be
made for foreign trade. Domestically produced ma-
chinery that is exported never appears in the invest-
ment data. Likewise, imported machinery appears in
the investment data, but is never reflected in the
production data.
Given the frequent delays in the construction indus-
try, we assume that on average production or imports
of machinery are reflected in investment after a year’s
lag.
Implied Production K
= Investment I +1 — Net Imports z
The investment series so adjusted is compared with
the SPIOER producer durables series in figure 7."
” Foreign trade in machinery and equipment is reported in
Vneshnyaya torgovlya SSSR in current foreign trade rubles; in
contrast the investment series is reported in constant estimate prices
of 1969. The foreign trade data are adjusted in the following way.
First, net imports of machinery and equipment are computed in
current foreign trade rubles. Second, a price index for imports is
derived by comparing the relative growth of two series for total
imports-—one in comparable prices and the other in current prices.
This implicit price index is used to deflate machinery imports, even
though it is based on all imports, including non-machinery pro-
ducts. Hence some possible error is introduced by this procedure
unless machinery prices have moved in the same pattern as all
import prices. Finally, net imports of machinery and equipment in
constant prices are adjusted to domestic prices by using a coeffi-
cient of 0.978 estimated by Vladimir Treml for 1972. Although the
assumptions used to make the foreign trade data comparable with
the investment data may be tenuous, machinery imports are a small
share of investment.
204
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.