Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Difference Between Official and SPIOER Growth Rates for Industry Difference 1’ (percentage point) 1951 16.4 12.2 4.2 1952 11.6 8.5 3.1 1953 12.0 9.1 2.9 1954 13.3 10.1 2.2 1955 12.5 11.0 1.5 1956 10.6 8.2 2.4 1957 10.0 7.7 2.3 1958 10.3 9.0 1.3 1959 11.4 9.3 2.1 1960 9.5 7.2 2.3 1961 9.1 6.7 2.4 1962 9.7 7.4 2.3 1963 8.1 6.0 2.1 1964 7.3 6.4 0.9 1965 8.7 6.5 2.2 1966 8.7 5.6 3.1 1967 10.0 6.9 3.1 1968 8.3 6.5 1.8 1969 7.1 5.4 1.7 1970 8.5 7.0 1.5 1971 7.7 6.1 1.6 1972 6.5 5.0 1.5 1973 7.5 5.8 A 1.7 1974 8.0 6.5 1.5 1975 7.5 6.2 1.3 1976 4.8 3.9 0.9 1977 5.7 4.0 1.7 1978 4.8 3.5 1.3 1979 3.4 3.0 0.4 1980 ¢ 3.6 2.9 0.7 = Central Statistical Agency, Narkhoz 78, 79, and 80, (Moscow: Statistika, 1979, 80, and 81) p. 38. b This is the annual growth rate of the official series less the SPIOER rates. Thus, a positive value indicates that SPIOER has reduced the growth rate while a negative one implies the opposite. ° Preliminary. Official 1* SPIOER (percent) (percent) period for total industry and eight out of nine branches and on the low growth period for all indexes. Only a minor shift would lead to perfect consistency at this level. A change in average growth rate of only 0.4 percentage point would bring the series for chemi- cals into conformity on the best growth periods. The secular consistency of SPIOER with respect to comparable period-to-period growth trends is surpris- ingly good. Table 12 summarizes the directional structure of the two growth index series. A negative sign indicates that growth has slowed while a positive one signifies an acceleration. When both signs match during a given period, the two indexes agree that growth has accelerated or decelerated. Of the 50 possible comparisons between the two sets of indexes, they agree on directional trend 45 times.“ Three of the five inconsistencies occur in the two branches of industry—construction materials and machinery- with the least reliable official output indexes. Consistent agreement on relative deviations of sub- period growth rates from the 1950-80 average is hard to interpret in terms of the reasonableness of the synthetic series because relative bias in either the official indexes or SPIOER may change. In any case the performance of SPIOER is mixed in this sort of comparison. In some cases—such as total industry, electric power, ferrous metals, and fuels—agreement is good on the pattern of growth. In others—like wood, pulp, and paper and construction materials— the magnitudes of growth shifts are very different in the two series. Therefore, SPIOER gives a somewhat different picture of the pattern of development in these latter branches. Consistency With Investment Series. Another way to test the representativeness of the producer durables sample is to compare this index with the official series " The test treats a result of no trend in one series versus some trend in the other as no match. 203 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.