Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Percent Comparisons of Average Annual Growth in SPIOER and Official Series 1951 -55 1956-60 1961-65 19657655 if 7881119187118-2588511’ "1976-so Total industry SPIOER Official 10.2 13.1 8.3 10.4 5.9 3.4 7.5 4.4 6.6 6.3 8.6 8.4 Ferrous metals SPIOER Official 11.1 12.1 7.6 8.8 7.2 5.1 4.0 8.0 5.7 . 5" Q .->- tg-.- Fuels SPIOER Official 9.4 10.1 8.9 8.5 6.3 5.0 6.5 5.7 5.0 3.3 5.1 2.9 Electric power SPIOER Official 13.1 14.4 11.4 13.1 7.0 4.5 7.1 5.0 11.5 7.9 12.3 9.0 Chemicals and petrochemicals SPIOER Official 11.6 17.3 10.5 12.0 8.6 3.8 10.6 5.7 12.0 8.9 14.4 12.2 Wood, pulp, and paper SPIOER Official 7.4 8.3 5.8 7.8 2.6 2.9 Zéwwflizffm 5.0 5.5 5.2 A. -o U._. Construction materials SPIOER Official 15.7 17.6 14.7 17.6 5.4 5.7 5.4 9.1 8.6 7.5 1"?" moo Machinery SPIOER Official 9.6 16.7 7.9 14.2 7.4 6.9 7.9 5.4 12.4 11.7 11.6 8.2 Light industry SPIOER 10.4 6.4 Official 12.3 6.9 2.6 7.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 8.6 4.6 3.4 Processed food SPIOER 10.2 8.4 Official 10.0 7.9 3.9 0.7 5.4 1.5 6.8 5.9 7.2 5.9 trends of the official indexes with respect to relative growth in different periods unless official series give a totally distorted view of the pattern of growth over time. For example, a test for secular consistency might compare growth in the fifties with that in the seven- ties. A radical divergence between the SPIOER and the official indexes with respect to the pattern of Soviet development would throw considerable doubt on the synthetic indexes. We expect that even though the official indexes are biased, they nonetheless reflect actual growth trends. To perform this test, we first compute the average annual rate of growth for 1951-80 and then several multiyear periods within that span for both SPIOER and the official series. These period growth rates are indexed relative to the historical average for that branch to then test both series for similar long-term 201 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.