Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 5 (continued)
Soviet Industrial Production: Annual Rates of Growth
Percent
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Industrial materials 6.8 5.7 4.8 5.5 5.3 5.7 3.6 2.9 2.8 1.0 2.5
Ferrous metals 5.5 3.8 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 2.7 0.7 2.2 0 —.3
Nonferrous metals 5.6 7.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 4.7 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.0 0.8
Fuels 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.9 3.7 4.2 3.1 3.0 2.3
Electric power 7.6 8.1 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.9 3.6 4.7 2.9 4.5
Chemicals and 11.3 8.1 6.7 9.0 9.5
petrochemicals
9.7 4.8 5.2 3.6 0.2 5.2
Wood, pulp, and 4.9 2.8 2.0 2.7 1.8
P313"
3.6 -0.1 0.5 —0.5 -2.9 2.8
Construction 8.5 6.7 5.2 6.0 4.7
materials
4.5 3.5 1.9 2.4 0.3 1.0
Total machinery 7.7 8.1 6.9 8.3 8.5 7.7 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 4.4
Including:
Producer durables 8.5 10.1 7.2 8.8 8.8 8.2 6.4 6.5 6.3 6.0 3.8
Consumer 10.2 12.6 13.8 13.0
durables
10.4 8.7 6.2 7.2 8.4 4.4 3.8
Consumer non- 6.0 3.4 2.1 1.7 5.5
durables
4.1 1.2 3.3 0.6 2.6 0.1
Light industry 5.9 4.5 0.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 4.2 2.5 2.6 1.8 2.0
Processed food 6.0 2.6 3.3 0.8 7.9 5.1 -1.1 4.0 -1.1 3.2 -1.4
Total industry 7.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 6.5 6.2 3.9 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.9
production remained fairly stable at around 6 percent,
although it trended slightly downward. During this
period of apparent industrial consolidation, machinery
production continued to drive overall industrial
growth. Growth in industrial materials and consumer
nondurables was generally slower and showed a stron-
ger downward slide.
While all signs suggest that the growth of industrial
production slowed considerably after the 1950s, the
extent and suddenness of the decline in the indexes
may be deceptive. One likely cause of the sudden
slowdown is the decline in the workweek from 46 to
41 hours by 1960. Thus, even with a 4.4-percent
increase in industrial employment in 1960, labor
inputs increased only 0.5 percent.” Considering that
3° Steven Rapawy, Estimates and Projections of the Labor Force
and Civilian Employment in the U.S.S.R. 1950 to I 990, Foreign
Economic Report Number 10, (Washington: U.S. Department of
Commerce, September 1976), p. 43. The data presented were
revised and updated in February 1980.
the Soviets historically have achieved growth by the
infusion of new inputs, it is not surprising that growth
slowed. A lesser possibility, is that statistical reporting
practices may have tightened after the 1950s to
reduce the inflation of reported output in later report-
ing periods."
The current phase of industrial slowdown began in the
mid-1970s when growth of machinery production
started to falter and machinery production could no
longer offset the gradual slowdown in the growth of
materials and nondurables. This slowdown reflects the
slowing growth in the industrial labor force, a con-
tinuing failure to assimilate new production capacity
" For a discussion of the padding of Soviet output statistics, see
Gregory Grossman, Soviet Statistics of Physical Output of Indus-
trial Commodities, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1960),
and Alec Nove, “A Note on the Availability and Reliability of
Soviet Statistics,” in Morris Bornstein and Daniel R. Fusfeld, ed.,
The Soviet Economy: A Book of Readings (fourth edition;
I-Iomewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1974), pp. 237-245.
194
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.