Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 4 (continued) Soviet Industrial Production Indexes l970=l00 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Industrial materials 100.00 105.66 110.76 116.88 123.12 130.19 134.88 138.77 142.62 144.11 147.77 Ferrous metals 100.00 103.79 107.25 111.57 116.30 121.45 124.70 125.60 128.38 128.45 128.02 Nonferrous metals 100.00 107.02 112.72 119.56 126.92 132.89 137.08 141.26 145.90 150.22 '15l.43 Fuels 100.00 104.81 109.78 115.11 120.73 127.83 132.54 138.12 142.47 146.70 150.14 Electric power 100.00 108.12 115.80 123.62 131.88 140.58 150.29 155.65 162.90 167.68 175.26 Chemicals and _ petrochemicals 100.00 108.06 115.28 125.71 137.67 151.03 158.26 166.55 172.49 172.88 181.90 Wood, pulp, and P3lJ¢1' 100.00 102.80 104.83 107.66 109.59 113.59 113.45 113.98 113.44 110.16 113.22 Construction materials 100.00 106.67 112.27 119.01 124.61 130.24 134.76 137.37 140.73 141.19 142.59 Total machinery 100.00 108.12 115.61 125.25 135.96 146.38 154.50 163.21 172.39 182.04 189.96 Including: Producer durables 100.00 1 10.05 117.97 128.34 139.60 151.03 160.70 171.22 182.05 193.00 200.39 Consumer durables 100.00 112.62 128.14 144.86 159.91 173.85 184.68 197.98 214.65 224.14 232.72 Consumer non- durables 100.00 103.43 105.60 107.40 113.32 117.99 119.42 123.40 124.11 127.29 127.47 Light industry 100.00 104.48 105.26 108.24 111.11 114.30 119.05 122.06 125.21 127.41 129.96 Processed food 100.00 102.55 105.89 106.69 115.17 121.09 119.73 124.52 123.19 127.18 125.38 Total industry 100.00 106.06 111.40 117.88 125.51 133.24 138.45 143.92 148.93 153.36 157.77 sectors used for computing output for the branches and total industry appear in appendix table A-2. Major Trends in Industrial Production The postwar period of Soviet industrial growth falls naturally into three phases: an immediate postwar boom, a period of stable—but slowly declining—- overall growth, and then a prolonged slowdown. These three phases are clear and pronounced for total industry and for industrial materials (figure 5). Ma- chinery conforms to this pattern except in the middle phase. Its growth slows initially in the 1960s, as do the other groups, but growth then improves in the mid- 1960s where it remains on a plateau until the third phase begins. Consumer nondurablcs also do not exhibit a stable middle phase, showing instead large growth fluctuations around a steadily declining trend. The postwar industrial boom lasted through the 1950s with annual industrial growth ranging between 8 and 12 percent per year. As the Soviet economy rebuilt from the massive destruction of World War II, expan- sion focused on those industries most vital to the nation’s investment programs—-construction materials and machinery. Production of consumer nondurablcs generally grew more slowly even though production was at a low absolute level. The early 1960s marked the beginning of a new phase in Soviet industrial development as growth slowed sharply in practically every branch. For the next decade and a half, the growth of total industrial 192 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.