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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

Open the PDF at page 194 Original source ↗

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  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 4 (continued)
Soviet Industrial Production Indexes
l970=l00
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Industrial materials 100.00 105.66 110.76 116.88 123.12 130.19 134.88 138.77 142.62 144.11 147.77
Ferrous metals 100.00 103.79 107.25 111.57 116.30 121.45 124.70 125.60 128.38 128.45 128.02
Nonferrous
metals
100.00 107.02 112.72 119.56 126.92 132.89 137.08 141.26 145.90 150.22 '15l.43
Fuels 100.00 104.81 109.78 115.11 120.73 127.83 132.54 138.12 142.47 146.70 150.14
Electric power 100.00 108.12 115.80 123.62 131.88 140.58 150.29 155.65 162.90 167.68 175.26
Chemicals and
_ petrochemicals
100.00 108.06 115.28 125.71 137.67 151.03 158.26 166.55 172.49 172.88 181.90
Wood, pulp, and
P3lJ¢1'
100.00 102.80 104.83 107.66 109.59 113.59 113.45 113.98 113.44 110.16 113.22
Construction
materials
100.00 106.67 112.27 119.01 124.61 130.24 134.76 137.37 140.73 141.19 142.59
Total machinery 100.00 108.12 115.61 125.25 135.96 146.38 154.50 163.21 172.39 182.04 189.96
Including:
Producer
durables
100.00 1 10.05 117.97 128.34 139.60 151.03 160.70 171.22 182.05 193.00 200.39
Consumer
durables
100.00 112.62 128.14 144.86 159.91 173.85 184.68 197.98 214.65 224.14 232.72
Consumer non-
durables
100.00 103.43 105.60 107.40 113.32 117.99 119.42 123.40 124.11 127.29 127.47
Light industry 100.00 104.48 105.26 108.24 111.11 114.30 119.05 122.06 125.21 127.41 129.96
Processed food 100.00 102.55 105.89 106.69 115.17 121.09 119.73 124.52 123.19 127.18 125.38
Total industry 100.00 106.06 111.40 117.88 125.51 133.24 138.45 143.92 148.93 153.36 157.77
sectors used for computing output for the branches
and total industry appear in appendix table A-2.
Major Trends in Industrial Production
The postwar period of Soviet industrial growth falls
naturally into three phases: an immediate postwar
boom, a period of stable—but slowly declining—-
overall growth, and then a prolonged slowdown. These
three phases are clear and pronounced for total
industry and for industrial materials (figure 5). Ma-
chinery conforms to this pattern except in the middle
phase. Its growth slows initially in the 1960s, as do the
other groups, but growth then improves in the mid-
1960s where it remains on a plateau until the third
phase begins. Consumer nondurablcs also do not
exhibit a stable middle phase, showing instead large
growth fluctuations around a steadily declining trend.
The postwar industrial boom lasted through the 1950s
with annual industrial growth ranging between 8 and
12 percent per year. As the Soviet economy rebuilt
from the massive destruction of World War II, expan-
sion focused on those industries most vital to the
nation’s investment programs—-construction materials
and machinery. Production of consumer nondurablcs
generally grew more slowly even though production
was at a low absolute level.
The early 1960s marked the beginning of a new phase
in Soviet industrial development as growth slowed
sharply in practically every branch. For the next
decade and a half, the growth of total industrial
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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.