Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“United Press”16 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 3 Industry: 1970 Value Added at Factor Cost by Branch 1970 Value Added by Share of Industry Group Share of Industry Branch at Factor Cost (percent) b (percent) C (billion rubles) = Industrial Materials 59.113 100.0 49.7 Ferrous metals 8.793 14.9 7.4 Nonferrous metals 4.810 8.1 4.0 Fuel 12.070 20.4 10.1 Electric power 8.308 14.1 7.0 Chemicals 7.756 13.1 6.5 Wood, pulp, and paper 9.388 15.9 7.9 Construction materials 7.988 13.5 6.7 Machinery 38.528 100.0 32.4 Consumer nondurables 21.404 100.0 18.0 Light industry 9.761 45.6 8.2 Processed food 11.643 54.4 9.8 Subtotal 119.045 Other industry 3.564 Total industry 122.609 3 JEC, GNP, I 950-80. See table E-4. The groups—industrial materials and consumer nondurables—are sums of the branches directly below them. 1’ Each value added in column 2 divided by the appropriate group total. C Value added in each branch and group divided by the subtotal for all industry. The effect of dividing by the subtotal is to allocate other industry proportionally among all of the branches. The Index of Total Industrial Output The calculation of indexes for the three major indus- try groups and for total industry can be summarized briefly. Since these indexes are used in estimating Soviet GNP within the framework of the GNP ac- counts maintained by the Office of Economic Re- search, we use the branch value added at factor cost in 1970 as weights instead of weights derived from input-output tables. The purpose of using factor cost instead of established prices for measuring value added is to count the true resource costs of produc- tion. The chief differences from an established price valuation are that factor cost subtracts taxes, adds subsidies, and imputes the costs of productive factors not appropriately accounted for by Soviet procedures, such as charges on fixed capital and working capital.” " See CIA, USSR: Gross National Product Accounts, I970, pp. 1, 20, 85. Table 3 shows these weights and the relative impor- tance of each branch. The group and aggregate indexes are obtained by converting each branch index to a value-added basis and then summing the ele- ments within each group and all industry. Soviet Industrial Growth, 1950-80 Having described the methodology of the production index, we present the indexes and review some of the key developments in Soviet industry since 1950. Revised SPIOER Indexes The revised SPIOER indexes for the period 1950-80 are given in table 4 and the annual rates of growth in table 5. The average annual rates of growth for various quinquenniums are further summarized in table 6. The indexes for the individual input-output 190 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.