Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Figure 3 Branch Share of 1972 Industrial Gross Output and Value Added Percent Ferrous metals Nonferrous metals Fuels Electric power Machinery Chemicals and petro- chemicals Wood, pulp, and paper products Construction materials Light industry Processed food B Gross output E Value added Industry, nec Ho ‘.11 ... 0 U» l I I I 20 25 30 35 Derivation of the Branch Indexes. For reasons enu- merated above, the SPIOER indexes use the single indicator technique to measure industrial production. Computing the branch indexes involves: creating the sector indexes, deriving the sector value added, and aggregating the sectors into branches. The indicator used is based on gross output. The method for esti- mating the indexes described below applies to every branch except for machinery, where the methodology is slightly more complicated. To construct the 72 sector indexes, the sample of industrial products is classified by input-output sec- tors to develop a series of subsamples. Each individual line item is multiplied by its 1 July 1967 enterprise wholesale price to convert all sample items into value terms. Then for each sector in every year all of the line items in a subsample are summed to yield a value series for sample output in that sector. Finally, these sector series are indexed to the base year of 1970. Next value added in each sector is derived for 1972 from the reconstructed input-output table in producer prices." Total purchases by each sector are subtracted from its gross outlays (or gross output.) ‘° For other " A somewhat more aggregated form of this input-output table appears in the article by Dimitri M. Gallik, Gene D. Guill, Barry L. Kostinsky, and Vladimir G. Treml, “The 1972 Input-Output Table and the Changing Structure of the Soviet Economy," Soviet Economy in a Time Q/Change, vol. l, pp. 423-471. " This particular version of the 1972 table allocates the taxes and subsidies on the purchases of every sector to the interindustry quadrant. This avoids the problem of a negative value added that would arise in many of the sectors in the processed food branch. Since food prices are held down artificially by the government, many of these sectors must receive substantial subsidies. 187 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.