Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Figure l Growth of Industrial Pr0duction,l950—80 Percent 12 l0 T 6 4 2 E Postwar boom Stable, slowly declining I Slowdown I '__'_J I I I I I I I I [:1 I I I I I I I I I I I I . ' ' ' ' I -u _f_Y_fiA .'§r§-1-I-I-113Iii-1-§'i'111'§rT'I'I1I'1rI'1'1'i'§ -‘l‘~'+'-'|-'-|‘-'l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II I II II III III III IIII III IIII III IIII III IIII II 1 1 1 11 111 1 1 11 11 11 1 1 11 11 1 9.00 111111 1 0010 1111111111111 111111111'99.. 11111111111111111111111....IIIIIIIIIIOIII 111111111 o... 1111111111111111111111111 I Lj- o 1950 U1 L11 60 65 70 75 80 To combine sector indexes into indexes for the branches of industry, we use a 1972 input-output table for the USSR to derive value-added weights within the branch.’ The branch indexes are further aggregated into indexes for industrial materials, machinery, consumer nondurables, and total industry. The amounts of value added in each branch in 1970 (at factor cost) serve as the weights.’ Machinery production is treated differently because of the need for indexes for machinery components. Samples are created for nearly every machin- ery sector in the input-output table, and estimates of the total value added for each sector are allocated between producer and consumer durables 1 An input-output table is a data matrix that records for a given year the technological rela- tionships between the various sectors of an economy. Along the columns, it gives the structure of inputs of materials, labor, and capital necessary to produce a given volume of output. Along the rows, it shows how the output of a given sector is distributed among the various industries and final consumption. 3 Value added is gross output less intermediate inputs consumed. More specifically, value added includes profits, wages, depreciation, and other payments to the factors of production plus indirect business taxes and subsidies (as a negative income). 176 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.