Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Contents Page Summary _ 175 Introduction 179 The Revised Methodology 179 Taxonomy of the Industrial Index 179 The Product Sample 180 Sectors, Branches, and Groups 183H Construction of the Standard Indexes 184 Alternative Approaches 184W 7 Derivation of the Branch Indexes 187 The Machinery Index 188 The Index of Total Industrial Gutput g _ g 190 Soviet Industrial Growth, 1950-80 190 Revised SPIOER Indexes 190 Major Trends in Industrial Production 192 Industrial Materials 197 Machinery 197 ' Consumer Nondurables 198 Evaluation of the New Indexes 198 Consistency Tests 198 Consistency With the Official Indexes 198 Plausible Elimination of Inflated Growth 200 Consistency of Growth Trends 200 Consistency With Investment Series 203 Sample Representativeness “TWP 7 GGGGG If WT 207I Sample Coverage 7 gwflm 7 I H207 A Rough Measure of Sample Representativeness 208 Biases in the Basic Data 210 Changes in the Material Intensity of Production 210 Biases in the Quantity and Value Data 212I I WW7‘ I “ The Importance of Disguised Inflation W 215 Appendixes A. The SPIOER Sample and Sector Indexes 219 B. Computation of the Machinery Index 241 171 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.