Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 and agriculture (livestock) sectors, and each portion of (state administration and the administrative organs of the capital stock is revalued according to the price social organizations, culture, health, education, forest- variable, p(i), of the sector producing the capital. ry, municipal services, general agricultural programs, Second, the constraint is added that factor-cost GNP and civilian police) was given a rate of return one-half must equal established-price GNP. These refinements that of the other sectors. produce the system of equations: n n With equations (6) and (7) solved, and the entire l-O (6) p(j)XU)= §p(i)x(i,j)+W(j)+d(j)+r§p(i)K(i’j), table repriced in factor-cost prices, the only step i=1 i=1 remaining was to rearrange the data in accord with our definitions of GNP sectors. In effect, the adjust- ments described in the first section of this appendix n were made in reverse order. The result is a Western- (7) w(j).+_d(j)+r Zp(i)K(iJ)=GNP (established prices), style I970 I-O table WIIITGNP by end USC and by i=1 sector of origin in factor-cost prices as two of its components. where K(i,j) is the amount of capital produced by sector i and owned by sector j. There are n equations of type (6) and one equation (7), for a total of n+1. There are n unknown price variables, p(i), and one unknown interest variable, r, for a total of n+ l. Equation (6) is nonlinear, however, and the system must be solved by iteration. The capital data were derived principally from the estimates by Constance B. Krueger of capital stock by major sector in 1955 prices (USSR: Gross Fixed Capital, unpublished, 1976). Capital stock of the various services were estimated primarily from data in Rutgayzer, Resursy razvitiya neproizvodstvennoy sfery, and other monographs on the service sector. Imputed depreciation was also added for capital stock for which the Soviets do not compute amortization deductions (primarily the capital used by budget organizations). In order to make our accounts more comparable to those of OECD countries, a compromise between the theoretical standard of an equal rate of return on capital in all sectors and the OECD practice of not imputing any return on government capital was adopted. In the version used here, the capital stock of the housing sector and of the government sectors 168 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.