Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 50 …Commerce, Washington, D.C., 1967; T. P. Hill, The Measurement of Real Product, The Organization for…
  • p. 51 …on the representativeness of the quantity sample. Hill argues that the price index is likely to…
  • p. 53 …small fluctuations in the two other values.” ” Hill investigated the conditions under which double deflation is…
  • p. 188 …Moreover, Hill’s study of growth in several OECD countries suggests that on average the growth…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
and agriculture (livestock) sectors, and each portion of (state administration and the administrative organs of
the capital stock is revalued according to the price social organizations, culture, health, education, forest-
variable, p(i), of the sector producing the capital. ry, municipal services, general agricultural programs,
Second, the constraint is added that factor-cost GNP and civilian police) was given a rate of return one-half
must equal established-price GNP. These refinements that of the other sectors.
produce the system of equations:
n n With equations (6) and (7) solved, and the entire l-O
(6) p(j)XU)= §p(i)x(i,j)+W(j)+d(j)+r§p(i)K(i’j), table repriced in factor-cost prices, the only step
i=1 i=1 remaining was to rearrange the data in accord with
our definitions of GNP sectors. In effect, the adjust-
ments described in the first section of this appendix
n were made in reverse order. The result is a Western-
(7) w(j).+_d(j)+r Zp(i)K(iJ)=GNP (established prices), style I970 I-O table WIIITGNP by end USC and by
i=1 sector of origin in factor-cost prices as two of its
components.
where K(i,j) is the amount of capital produced by
sector i and owned by sector j.
There are n equations of type (6) and one equation (7),
for a total of n+1. There are n unknown price
variables, p(i), and one unknown interest variable, r,
for a total of n+ l. Equation (6) is nonlinear, however,
and the system must be solved by iteration.
The capital data were derived principally from the
estimates by Constance B. Krueger of capital stock by
major sector in 1955 prices (USSR: Gross Fixed
Capital, unpublished, 1976). Capital stock of the
various services were estimated primarily from data in
Rutgayzer, Resursy razvitiya neproizvodstvennoy
sfery, and other monographs on the service sector.
Imputed depreciation was also added for capital stock
for which the Soviets do not compute amortization
deductions (primarily the capital used by budget
organizations).
In order to make our accounts more comparable to
those of OECD countries, a compromise between the
theoretical standard of an equal rate of return on
capital in all sectors and the OECD practice of not
imputing any return on government capital was
adopted. In the version used here, the capital stock of
the housing sector and of the government sectors
168
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

Not linked to a story yet.

About this file

FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.