Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 The 1970 gross output of each sector in purchasers’ prices was then estimated using the gross output in producers’ prices, turnover tax and subsidy data from the GNP accounts, and transportation and trade data from the 1972 1-O table. The gross output of each sector in both prices is shown in the following tabulation: Sector Gross Output in Gross Output in Producers’ Prices Purchasers’ Prices (billion rubles) (billion rubles) Metallurgy _ 31.076 40.542 Euels 22.442 34.478 Electric Power 11.511 12.011 Machinery 92.800 101.459 Cgemicals 22.414 24.700 Wood, pulp, and paper 19.419 23.196 Construction materials 15.990 21.926 Light industry 62.988 78.843 Food industry 90.489 115.735 Animal products 4s.96i_ 38.396 __Pro£essed foods 12.527 19.539 Basic foods 16.235 @749 Beverages 15.766 39.051 Other industry 12.621 13.626 Construction _6_7.522 67.600 Agricultu; 103.800 109.295 _F_orestry _ 0.623 ' 0.636 Transportation and communications 25.700 25.700 Trade — 22.100 21.700 Other branches 3.800 4.300 The gross outputs of the service sectors were derived from the GNP data. The result of all of the adjustments and estimates described above was a 1970 I-O table with the value- added and final-demand quadrants, the gross outputs, and a few elements of the interindustry quadrant filled in. The remainder of the interindustry quadrant was blank. Converting the GNP Data to Producers’ Prices The 1972 Soviet I-O table was compiled and pub- lished in established or purchasers’ prices. The parts of the 1970 table not filled in as described in the 93-892 O — :32 -12 165 previous section are estimated by assuming that the relationships among the various elements of the table in 1970 are similar to the same relationships in 1972. The Soviets published only part of the 1972 1-O table. Western experts reconstructed the unpublished en- tries and converted the entire table to producers‘ prices by eliminating turnover taxes and subsidies and by separating the costs of transportation and trade services from the purchase price and showing them as a separate expense. Producers’ prices are a more accurate reflection of the structure of production costs in each sector and provide a better basis for estimat- ing the cost structure for 1970. Since the elimination of turnover taxes and subsidies is also part of the conversion to factor-cost prices, it is expedient to convert the data in the partially completed 1970 1-O table to producers’ prices before completing the table. This price change is described here. The I-O data are converted from purchasers’ prices to producers’ prices in four steps: (1) turnover taxes and other fees are deleted, (2) transportation and commu- nications expenses are reallocated, (3) trade and distri- bution expenses are reallocated, and (4) the value added and gross output in each sector are increased by the value of any subsidies given to the sector. Turnover taxes and other fees form part of the purchasers’ price of a good as an element of value added and need to be subtracted from the value added and gross output of each sector. Total turnover taxes and other fees are 54.606 billion rubles, the sum of turnover taxes ($3.346 billion rubles—-table D-3, item 3,e), price markups on radio and television sets (0.510 billion rub1es——table D-3, item 3,f) and surcharges on spare parts for agricultural machinery (0.750 billion rub1es—table D-3, item 3,f). The distribution of turn- over taxes by sector is shown in table D-16. The price markups on radio and television sets and the sur- charges on spare parts for agricultural machinery are part of the value added of the machinery sector. The same value of taxes and fees also had to be removed from each sector’s sales to preserve the equality between total output and input. In order to subtract the taxes and fees from the rows of the 1-O table, it is necessary to estimate the distribution of the taxes of each sector as an element of the sales to each sector or to a category of final demand. For this, it was Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.