Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 ' The output of the forestry sector is redefined. In our GNP accounts, the entire output of the forestry sector is treated as a final expenditure and the stumpage fees paid by the wood, pulp, and paper and other branches sectors are included in the value added of those sectors. Soviet I-O tables define the stumpage fees as sales of the forestry sector. Sales to final demand by forestry are the difference between the gross output of the sector and first quadrant sales. ~ The general agricultural programs sector was aggre- gated with the agriculture sector and redefined. It appears that this activity is reflected in an I-O table in value added as a subsidy rather than as a final demand expenditure. ~ The subsidy on fresh vegetables, part of the value added of the trade sector in GNP, is transferred to the agriculture sector. - The productive and nonproductive portions of the transportation and communications sectors were estimated and regrouped to form a productive trans- portation and communications sector and a separate nonproductive sector. ~ The value added in the ferrous and nonferrous metals branches was aggregated to match the ag- gregate metallurgy sector in the 1972 I-O table. - Income from foreign trade was deleted. The end-use GNP data show total expenditures for various goods and services but do not show which sector of the economy produced them. Thus, the end- use data must be disaggregated in.order to fill in the final-demand quadrant. Each column in the con- structed final-demand quadrant shows the expendi- tures for a given end-use category of GNP. Each row shows the sales of an I-O sector to each end-use category. In many cases, such as transportation, all of the end-use expenditures represent purchases from the sector of the same title. In other cases, such as soft goods, most expenditures were for the output of one sector (light industry in this case). In a few cases, such as inventory change, essentially arbitrary choices had to be made. In disaggregating the expenditure catego- ries, the allocations followed Soviet I-O definitions, as did the allocations of value-added data. In addition, several modifications were made to the GNP data, and some estimates were made of missing data: ~ A subsidy was added for private housing compara- ble to that for public housing. Imputed net rent was increased by the same amount, leaving the value added of the housing sector unchanged. - The value added of the food industry was divided into four subsectors to match the end-use expendi- tures on food. ~ The intermediate sales of services were estimated. The services involved are credit and insurance, repair and personal care, recreation, and nonproduc- tive transportation and communications. ' The structure of expenditures for goods and services by the nonproductive service sectors was estimated. In the second adjustment nonproductive service sec- tors were moved out of the interindustry quadrant. This produces additional rows in the value-added quadrant showing the sales of services to other sectors and additional columns in the final-demand quadrant showing the purchases of goods and services by the service sectors. The gross output of each productive sector in purchas- ers’ and producers’ prices can be estimated from similar data in the 1966 and 1972 I-O tables and annually published production and price indexes. The gross output of an I-O sector can be estimated for any year between 1966 and 1972 in current producers’ prices by multiplying the 1966 gross output from the I-O table times the constant-price production index and the price index published for that sector. This was done for each sector for 1972 and the results were compared with the corresponding data from the 1972 I-O table. The two 1972 gross-output estimates were quite close in all cases. A correction factor was computed which would equalize the two estimates. Then the average annual rate of growth of the correction factor was used in conjunction with the 1970 production and price indexes to estimate 1970 gross output in producers’ prices. 164 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.