Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix E Conversion of 1970 GNP From Established Prices to Factor-Cost Prices The 1970 GNP data in established prices are convert- ed to factor-cost prices in four steps: (1) arrangement of the established-price data in a format compatible with Soviet input-output (I-O) definitions, (2) conver- sion of the established-price data to producers’ prices, (3) estimation of a 1970 I-O table in producers’ prices consistent with the GNP data, and (4) use of the I-O table to convert the GNP data in producers’ prices to factor-cost prices. This appendix describes all four steps. I-O tables are used to associate changes in value added by sector of origin with changes in end use expenditures. The conversion from established prices to factor-cost prices involves (1) the elimination of those elements of prices which do not reflect payments for factors of production (land, labor, and capital) or for goods and services used in the production process and (2) the reestimation of payments for capital services (profits and depreciation) to provide an equal rate of return on capital in all sectors. Because both types of changes involve the value-added component of a sector’s prices, they directly affect the prices of the goods produced by that sector, whether the goods are delivered directly to final end uses or are pur- chased by other sectors. Changes in value added, therefore, change the prices of all final goods either directly or indirectly. Taking account of the direct and indirect sources of price changes for the elements of GNP by end use requires information on the structure of each sector’s purchases of intermediate goods and services. It is this information which is included in an I-O table and which leads us to estimate a 1970 I-O table. (For a description of I-O tables in general and Soviet I-O tables in particular, see Vladimir G. Treml, Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinsky, and Kurt W. Kruger, The Structure of the Soviet Economy: Analysis and Reconstruction of the 1966 Input-Output Table, New York, Praeger Pub- lishers, 1972.) 163 Arranging the GNP Data in an I-O Format The first step in the construction of a 1970 I-O table is to fill in as much of the table as possible with the available information. In this case, the value-added quadrant of the I-O table can be filled in using sector- of-origin GNP data. Values in the final demand quadrant rely on end-use GNP data. (For a discussion of the relationship between GNP and an I-O table, see Philip M. Ritz, “The Input-Output Structure of the U.S. Economy, 1972,” Survey of Current Business, February 1981, pp. 34-37.) In addition, gross output data can be estimated from published Soviet data. Putting the GNP data into a Soviet I-O table requires two sets of adjustments. First, the definitions of our GNP sectors often differ from the Soviet definitions of the corresponding I-O sectors, and the data must be adjusted accordingly. Second, a Soviet I-O table includes only the so-called productive sectors. We therefore have to rearrange our GNP data for the nonproductive sectors to conform with the Soviet treatment of such data in their I-O tables. This section summarizes these two adjustments. In order to conform with the definitions of Soviet I-O sectors we have made the following changes to the sector-of-origin GNP data in table D-6: ~ The value added of the repair and personal care services included in Soviet industrial statistics was transferred to the machinery; wood, pulp, and pa- per; light industry; and other industry sectors. ' The value added of the utilities sector connected with water and sewage services was transferred to the other industry sector, and the value added connected with urban gas distribution was trans- ferred to the transportation sector. Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.