Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Sources to this table: 1. Turnover taxes. Total turnover taxes are from table D-3, item 3,e. Of this amount, 3.966 billion rubles is the difference between gross and net turnover taxes as reported in Gosbyudzhet I972, p. 14. This difference represents subsidies of various kinds paid from tax receipts, mainly children’s clothing. The entire amount is allocated to the light industry sector. The distribution of the net turnover taxes (49.380 billion rubles) is estimated primarily from two sources. Taxes collected in the machinery, light industry, food industry, and the petroleum part of the fuels sector are from P. E. Kuchkin and N. N. Morozov, Chistiy dokhod sotsialisticheskogo obshchestva, Moscow, Finansy, 1974, pp. 155-156. Taxes collected in the ferrous metals; electric power; wood, pulp, and paper; construction materials; and the gas component of the fuels sector are taken or calculated from data in A. Tret’yakova, Nalog s oborota v 1972, unpublished, 1978. Taxes collected in the chemi- cals sector are assumed to be 1 percent of the total, and taxes collected in the other industry sector are calculated as a residual. 2. Other identified indirect taxes. The total, industry, and services line items are the sum of their parts. The machinery line item is the sum of price markups on radio and television sets and surcharges on agricultural machinery (table D-3, item 3,0. The wood, pulp, and paper and other branches line items are stumpage fees paid by these sectors for harvested wood. The fees are recorded as forestry income in the state budget (table D-3, item 3,f). Total forestry income (0.492 billion rubles) is divided between the wood, pulp, and paper and the other branches sectors on the basis of data from the 1972 Soviet I-O table which shows these fees as sales of the forestry sector. The agriculture line item is indirect taxes paid by kolkhozy and sovkhozy (CIA, GNP I970, p. 68). The housing line item is rental payments paid by the trade sector for space in housing units used for retail trade outlets. 3. Income from foreign trade. Income from foreign trade is based on detailed estimates of foreign trade in 1970 valued in foreign trade rubles and the ratio of foreign trade prices to domestic prices by input-output category. First the 1970 foreign trade data in foreign trade prices were allocated to input-output sectors based on the procedures set out in Treml and Kostinsky, The Domestic Value of Foreign Trade: Exports and Imports in the 197 2 Input- Output Table. Then the price ratios calculated in that report for each I-O sector were used to convert the values in foreign trade prices to domestic prices. The two sets of data were then aggregated from I-O sectors to GNP sectors. Each entry in this column represents net imports in domestic prices less net imports in foreign trade prices. The total exports and imports in domestic prices calculated in this manner were slightly different from the values published by Treml and Kostinsky. The domestic price data were scaled proportionally to equal their control totals. 4. Other miscellaneous charges. Total other miscellaneous charges are from table D-3, item 3,f. The total is distributed among all sectors on the basis of their shares in total value added less this item. 161 5. Subsidies. Total subsidies and most of the line items are from table D-3, item 4. The subsidy on agricultural machinery is allocated to the machinery sector; the fertilizer subsidy to the chemicals sector; and the processed feeds subsidy to the other industry sector. The subsidy for price differences on the procure- ment of agricultural products by industry is divided between the light. industry, food industry, and trade sectors based on the detailed estimates in CIA, GNP I970, p. 49. The subsidies on wool (0.14 billion rubles), cotton (1.15 billion rubles), and half of the subsidy on sunflower and other oil seeds, hemp, flax, kenaf, and hides (0.05 billion rubles) were allocated to the light industry. The subsidy on fresh vegetables was allocated to the trade sector. The remainder (12.1 10 billion rubles) was allocated to the food industry. Payments from gross turnover taxes were allocated to light indus- try. The subsidy on art and radiobroadcasting was divided between the communications (0.370 billion rubles) and recreation (0.258 billion rubles) sectors. The subsidy for price reductions in retail trade was allocated to the trade sector. The subsidies on housing, recreation, and the press were allocated to the housing, recreation, and other branches sectors, respectively. 6. Total turnover and other indirect taxes. This is the sum of columns 1 through 4. Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.